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The long-term impact of the COVID-19 unemployment shock on life expectancy and mortality rates

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  • Bianchi, Francesco
  • Bianchi, Giada
  • Song, Dongho

Abstract

We adopt a time series approach to investigate the historical relation between unemployment, life expectancy, and mortality rates. We fit Vector-autoregressions for the overall US population and for groups identified based on gender and race. We use our results to assess the long-run effects of the COVID-19 economic recession on mortality and life expectancy. We estimate the size of the COVID-19-related unemployment shock to be between 2 and 5 times larger than the typical unemployment shock, depending on race and gender, resulting in a significant increase in mortality rates and drop in life expectancy. We also predict that the shock will disproportionately affect African-Americans and women, over a short horizon, while the effects for white men will unfold over longer horizons. These figures translate in more than 0.8 million additional deaths over the next 15 years.

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  • Bianchi, Francesco & Bianchi, Giada & Song, Dongho, 2023. "The long-term impact of the COVID-19 unemployment shock on life expectancy and mortality rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:146:y:2023:i:c:s0165188922002846
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104581
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    3. Harran Al-Rahamneh & Lubna Arafa & Anas Al Orani & Rahaf Baqleh, 2021. "Long-Term Psychological Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Children in Jordan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-10, July.
    4. Celine Saul & Shannon Lange & Charlotte Probst, 2022. "Employment Status and Alcohol-Attributable Mortality Risk—A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-10, June.
    5. Francesco Bogliacino & Cristiano Codagnone & Frans Folkvord & Francisco Lupiáñez-Villanueva, 2023. "The impact of labour market shocks on mental health: evidence from the Covid-19 first wave," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(3), pages 899-930, October.
    6. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lin, Ye, 2023. "Does global warming affect unemployment? International evidence," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 991-1005.
    7. Giménez, Víctor & Prior, Diego & Thieme, Claudio & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2024. "International comparisons of COVID-19 pandemic management: What can be learned from activity analysis techniques?," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. Baira Faulks & Song Yinghua, 2021. "The COVID-19 Crisis: Implications for the Development and Growth of Agricultural Sector in EU countries and Russia," International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 37-46, April.
    9. Kai Fischer & J. James Reade & W. Benedikt Schmal, 2021. "The Long Shadow of an Infection: COVID-19 and Performance at Work," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2021-17, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    10. Dong-Suk Chun & Keeyeon Ki-cheon Park & Jong-Min Kim, 2024. "From Disruption to Sustainability: The Event Industry’s Journey through the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-15, July.
    11. Florin-Valeriu PANTELIMON & Bogdan-Stefan POSEDARU & Elena-Aura GRIGORESCU & Dimitrie-Daniel PLACINTA, 2021. "Labor Market Trends During The COVID-19 Pandemic," Informatica Economica, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 25(2), pages 50-63.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Life expectancy; Mortality; Unemployment rate; Bayesian methods; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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