IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2018-060.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Italy: Quantifying the Benefits of a Comprehensive Reform Package

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Andrle
  • Mr. Alvar Kangur
  • Mr. Mehdi Raissi

Abstract

This paper seeks to quantify the net benefits of a comprehensive reform package aimed at addressing Italy’s inter-related challenges. Specifically, it simulates the growth and competitiveness effects of a package of fiscal, financial, wage bargaining, and other structural reforms. Credible implementation of such a package yields substantial mediumterm dividends at negligible near-term growth costs. Real GDP growth is estimated to be substantially higher over the medium term, while the real effective exchange rate depreciates notably.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Andrle & Mr. Alvar Kangur & Mr. Mehdi Raissi, 2018. "Italy: Quantifying the Benefits of a Comprehensive Reform Package," IMF Working Papers 2018/060, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45738
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Cowan, Kevin N. & Engel, Eduardo M.R.A. & Micco, Alejandro, 2013. "Effective labor regulation and microeconomic flexibility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 92-104.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-1977, December.
    3. Mr. Alvar Kangur, 2018. "Competitiveness and Wage Bargaining Reform in Italy," IMF Working Papers 2018/061, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ms. Lusine Lusinyan & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2013. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms The Case of Italy," IMF Working Papers 2013/022, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Boeri, Tito & Jimeno, Juan F., 2005. "The effects of employment protection: Learning from variable enforcement," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 2057-2077, November.
    6. Mr. Derek Anderson & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt & Mika Kortelainen & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Dirk V Muir & Susanna Mursula & Stephen Snudden, 2013. "Getting to Know GIMF: The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model," IMF Working Papers 2013/055, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Balázs Égert & Peter Gal, 2017. "The quantification of structural reforms in OECD countries: A new framework," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 91-108.
    8. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2005. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1144-1166, September.
    9. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Dio & Francesco Felici, 2015. "Fiscal Devaluation Scenarios: A Quantitative Assessment for the Italian Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 731-785, September.
    10. Yosuke Jin & Patrick Lenain, 2015. "Labour market reform for more and better quality jobs in Italy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1266, OECD Publishing.
    11. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio & Felici, Francesco, 2013. "Structural reforms and the potential effects on the Italian economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 88-109.
    12. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi & Weber, Anke, 2017. "Can Italy grow out of its NPL overhang? A panel threshold analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 185-189.
    13. Raffaela Giordano & Sergi Lanau & Pietro Tommasino & Petia Topalova, 2020. "Does public sector inefficiency constrain firm productivity? Evidence from Italian provinces," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(4), pages 1019-1049, August.
    14. Michal Andrle & Shafik Hebous & Alvar Kangur & Mehdi Raissi, 2021. "Italy: toward a growth-friendly fiscal reform," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(1), pages 385-420, April.
    15. Jimeno, Juan F. & Thomas, Carlos, 2013. "Collective bargaining, firm heterogeneity and unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 63-79.
    16. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Susanna Mursula & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2010. "The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) – Theoretical Structure," IMF Working Papers 2010/034, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mariana Colacelli & Emilio Fernández Corugedo, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?," IMF Working Papers 2018/248, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Michal Andrle & Shafik Hebous & Alvar Kangur & Mehdi Raissi, 2021. "Italy: toward a growth-friendly fiscal reform," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(1), pages 385-420, April.
    3. Nazim Belhocine & Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia, 2020. "Identifying Service Market Reform Priorities in Italy," IMF Working Papers 2020/039, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia, 2020. "Labor Costs and Corporate Investment in Italy," IMF Working Papers 2020/038, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Alvar Kangur, 2018. "Competitiveness and Wage Bargaining Reform in Italy," IMF Working Papers 2018/061, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mariana Colacelli & Emilio Fernández Corugedo, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?," IMF Working Papers 2018/248, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Michal Andrle & Shafik Hebous & Alvar Kangur & Mehdi Raissi, 2021. "Italy: toward a growth-friendly fiscal reform," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(1), pages 385-420, April.
    4. Matteo Bugamelli & Francesca Lotti & Monica Amici & Emanuela Ciapanna & Fabrizio Colonna & Francesco D�Amuri & Silvia Giacomelli & Andrea Linarello & Francesco Manaresi & Giuliana Palumbo & Filippo , 2018. "Productivity growth in Italy: a tale of a slow-motion change," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 422, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Finland: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/312, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Borislava Mircheva & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2015. "Spillovers in the Nordic Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/070, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Barbara Annichiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici, 2016. "IGEM II: a New Variant of the Italian General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 4, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    8. Suarez, Javier & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2018. "Approaching non-performing loans from a macroprudential angle," Report of the Advisory Scientific Committee 7, European Systemic Risk Board.
    9. Kaoru Hosono & Koji Sakai & Kotaro Tsuru, 2009. "Consolidation of Banks in Japan: Causes and Consequences," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, pages 265-309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Koibuchi, Satoshi, 2007. "The impacts of "shock therapy" on large and small clients: Experiences from two large bank failures in Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 434-451, November.
    11. Chakrabarti, Prasenjit & Kaur, Jasmeet, 2024. "Zombie-lending during the pandemic in India: Did the Central Bank reduce credit misallocation concerns of forbearance?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 153-170.
    12. Fricke, Daniel & Roukny, Tarik, 2020. "Generalists and specialists in the credit market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    13. Kin Wai Cheung & Masami Imai, 2023. "Zombie Lending, Labor Hoarding, and Local Industry Growth," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2023-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    14. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Andrzej Torój, 2019. "In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1028-1053, November.
    15. Sakai, Koji & Uesugi, Iichiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2010. "Firm age and the evolution of borrowing costs: Evidence from Japanese small firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1970-1981, August.
    16. Mr. Takuji Komatsuzaki, 2016. "Improving Public Infrastructure in the Philippines," IMF Working Papers 2016/039, International Monetary Fund.
    17. De Veirman, Emmanuel & Levin, Andrew T., 2012. "When did firms become more different? Time-varying firm-specific volatility in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 578-601.
    18. Fabiano Schivardi & Enrico Sette & Guido Tabellini, 2022. "Credit Misallocation During the European Financial Crisis," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(641), pages 391-423.
    19. Inoue, Hitoshi & Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Takahashi, Koji, 2016. "Comment on Peek and Rosengren (2005) “Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Allocation of Credit in Japan”," MPRA Paper 72726, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Friesenbichler, Klaus S. & Glocker, Christian, 2019. "Tradability and productivity growth differentials across EU Member States," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-13.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/060. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.