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Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?

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  • Mariana Colacelli
  • Emilio Fernández Corugedo

Abstract

Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan’s outlook using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features. Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly offset the adverse effect of Japan’s demographic headwinds — a declining and ageing population — on real GDP (by about 15 percent in the next 40 years), but would not boost inflation or contribute substantially to stabilizing public debt. Alternatively, implementation of a fully-credible structural reform program can contribute significantly to stabilizing public debt because of the resulting increase in inflation towards the Bank of Japan’s target, while achieving the same positive long-run effects on real GDP. If no reforms are implemented, severe demographic headwinds are expected to reduce Japan’s real GDP by over 25 percent in the next 40 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariana Colacelli & Emilio Fernández Corugedo, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?," IMF Working Papers 2018/248, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/248
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Carton & Emilio Fernández Corugedo & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt & Simon Voigts, 2020. "Demographic Transition and Pension Reforms: Adding Demographics to GIMF," IMF Working Papers 2020/153, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Rahul Anand & Yaroslav Hul, 2019. "Achieving the Bank of Japan’s Inflation Target," IMF Working Papers 2019/229, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Fei Han, 2019. "Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2019/031, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ms. Chie Aoyagi & Alistair Munro, 2019. "Guilt, Gender, and Work-Life Balance in Japan: A Choice Experiment," IMF Working Papers 2019/261, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Imran Hussain Shah & Konstantinos Kollydas & Pak Yee Lee & Issam Malki & Crystal Chu, 2024. "Does R&D investment drive employment growth? Empirical evidence at industry level from Japan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 102-118, January.
    6. Johnston, Lauren A., 2020. "China’s Economic Demography Transition Strategy: A Population Weighted Approach to the Economy and Policy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 593, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Mariana Colacelli & Mr. Gee Hee Hong, 2019. "Productivity Drag from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2019/137, International Monetary Fund.

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