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Fiscal Devaluation Scenarios: A Quantitative Assessment for the Italian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Barbara Annicchiarico

    (CEIS, University of Rome "Tor Vergata")

  • Fabio Di Dio

    (Sogei S.p.A., IT Economia)

  • Francesco Felici

    (Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze, Dipartimento del Tesoro)

Abstract

We study the potential impact of fiscal devaluation policies on the Italian economy using IGEM, a dynamic general equilibrium model for the Italian economy developed at the Department of Treasury of the Italian Ministry of the Economy and Finance. The simulations show that fiscal devaluation policies are likely to produce short-run slight improvements on the external position of the economy, while the output gains seem to persist in the long run. Non-negligible distributional effects across households are also observed, since taxation on consumption tends to be regressive.

Suggested Citation

  • Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici, 2014. "Fiscal Devaluation Scenarios: A Quantitative Assessment for the Italian Economy," CEIS Research Paper 311, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Sep 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:311
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    Cited by:

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    2. Acocella, Nicola & Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Felici, Francesco & Alleva, Giorgio & Di Dio, Fabio & Liseo, Brunero, 2020. "A stochastic estimated version of the Italian dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 339-357.
    3. D’Andrea, Sara & D’Andrea, Silvia & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & D’Imperio, Paolo & Infantino, Giancarlo & Meacci, Mara, 2024. "The macroeconomic impact of structural reforms: The case of Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 946-963.
    4. Michal Andrle & Mr. Alvar Kangur & Mr. Mehdi Raissi, 2018. "Italy: Quantifying the Benefits of a Comprehensive Reform Package," IMF Working Papers 2018/060, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Hinterlang, Natascha & Martin, Anika & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2021. "Using energy and emissions taxation to finance labor tax reductions in a multi-sector economy: An assessment with EMuSe," Discussion Papers 50/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Radzikowski, Bartosz & Rzońca, Andrzej & Wojciechowski, Wiktor, 2020. "Fiscal devaluation and economic activity in the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 59-81.
    7. Mario Holzner & Marina Tkalec & Goran Vukšić, 2019. "Composition of trade flows and the effectiveness of fiscal devaluation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 453-477, February.
    8. Acocella, Nicola & Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Felici, Francesco, 2019. "An evaluation of alternative fiscal adjustment plans," EconStor Preprints 209707, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Barbara Annichiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici, 2016. "IGEM II: a New Variant of the Italian General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 4, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    10. Ruppert, Kilian & Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2024. "Consumption taxation to finance pension payments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    11. Acocella, Nicola & Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Felici, Francesco, 2020. "An evaluation of alternative fiscal adjustment plans: The case of Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 699-711.
    12. Nicola Acocella & Giorgio Alleva & Elton Beqiraj & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Fabio Di Dio & Marco Di Pietro & Francesco Felici & Brunero Liseo, 2018. "A stochastic estimated version of the Italian dynamic General Equilibrium Model (IGEM)," Working Papers 3, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    13. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Battles, Susan & Di Dio, Fabio & Molina, Pierfrancesco & Zoppoli, Pietro, 2017. "GHG mitigation schemes and energy policies: A model-based assessment for the Italian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 495-509.
    14. Giampaolo Arachi & Debora Assisi, 2021. "Fiscal devaluation and relative prices: evidence from the Euro area," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(3), pages 685-716, June.
    15. Barbara Annicchiarico & Susan Battles & Fabio Di Dio & Pierfrancesco Molina & Pietro Zoppoli, 2016. "GEEM: a policy model for assessing climate-energy reforms in Italy," Working Papers 3, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Devaluation; DGE; Structural Reforms; Italy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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