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Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Mr. Giovanni Melina
  • Mr. Rafael A Portillo

Abstract

We compare business cycle fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Our main results are as follows: (i) African economies stand out by their macroeconomic volatility, which is is reflected in the volatility of output and other macro variables; (ii) inflation and output tend to be negatively correlated; (iii) unlike advanced economies and emerging markets (EMs), trade balances and current accounts are acyclical in SSA; (iv) the volatility of consumption and investment relative to GDP is larger than in other countries; (v) the cyclicality of consumption and investment is smaller than in advanced economies and EMs; (vi) there is little comovement between consumption and investment; (vii) consumption and investment are strongly positively correlated with imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Giovanni Melina & Mr. Rafael A Portillo, 2018. "Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2018/040, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/040
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    2. Fabio Monteforte & Mathan Satchi & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2021. "Development priorities: the relative benefits of agricultural growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 1122-1152.
    3. Thiombiano, Noel & Ouedraogo, Salifou & Moussa, Abiboulaye, 2022. "Fiscal policy rules and economic fluctuations in the countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 252-263.
    4. Evelyn Nwamaka Ogbeide-Osaretin & Victoria Nkiruka Ishiwu, 2021. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Aggregate Welfare in Sub-Saharan African Countries," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 4, pages 380-396.

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