IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bri/uobdis/19-716.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Development Priorities: The Relative Benefits of Agricultural Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Monteforte
  • Mathan Satchi
  • Jonathan Temple

Abstract

Should agriculture or non-agriculture be a priority for development? We revisit this longstanding and intractable question using a two-sector, three-factor dynamic model with an asymptotic balanced growth path. The model allows a forward-looking assessment of development priorities based on lifetime welfare. A comparison of sector-specific productivity gains indicates that gains in non-agriculture are often more valuable, even when agriculture is initially the largest sector in terms of employment. We discuss the robustness of this result, including the roles of capital intensity, the discount rate, and taxes on profits in influencing the rates of investment and structural transformation

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Monteforte & Mathan Satchi & Jonathan Temple, 2019. "Development Priorities: The Relative Benefits of Agricultural Growth," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 19/716, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  • Handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:19/716
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bristol.ac.uk/efm/media/workingpapers/working_papers/pdffiles/dp19716.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefan Dercon & Douglas Gollin, 2014. "Agriculture in African Development: Theories and Strategies," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 471-492, October.
    2. Eberhardt, Markus & Vollrath, Dietrich, 2018. "The Effect of Agricultural Technology on the Speed of Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 483-496.
    3. Kraay, Aart & Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Poverty traps, aid, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 315-347, March.
    4. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March.
    5. Attanasio, Orazio P & Browning, Martin, 1995. "Consumption over the Life Cycle and over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1118-1137, December.
    6. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/22vv42pfks8jbb5qstg53r5mfl is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gollin, Douglas & Parente, Stephen L. & Rogerson, Richard, 2007. "The food problem and the evolution of international income levels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1230-1255, May.
    9. Richard Blundell & Martin Browning & Costas Meghir, 1994. "Consumer Demand and the Life-Cycle Allocation of Household Expenditures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(1), pages 57-80.
    10. Atolia, Manoj & Chatterjee, Santanu & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2010. "How misleading is linearization? Evaluating the dynamics of the neoclassical growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1550-1571, September.
    11. Michelle Connolly & Kei-Mu Yi, 2015. "How Much of South Korea's Growth Miracle Can Be Explained by Trade Policy?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 188-221, October.
    12. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio T, 1993. "Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 908-931, September.
    13. Piyabha Kongsamut & Sergio Rebelo & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(4), pages 869-882.
    14. Gollin, Douglas, 2010. "Agricultural Productivity and Economic Growth," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: Robert Evenson & Prabhu Pingali (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 73, pages 3825-3866, Elsevier.
    15. Ohanian, Lee & Raffo, Andrea & Rogerson, Richard, 2008. "Long-term changes in labor supply and taxes: Evidence from OECD countries, 1956-2004," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1353-1362, November.
    16. Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri, 2008. "Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 467-498, June.
    17. Ventura, Jaume, 2005. "A Global View of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 22, pages 1419-1497, Elsevier.
    18. Ben-David, Dan, 1998. "Convergence clubs and subsistence economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 155-171, February.
    19. Stefan Dercon & Douglas Gollin, 2014. "Agriculture in African Development: A Review of Theories and Strategies," CSAE Working Paper Series 2014-22, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    20. Trimborn, Timo & Koch, Karl-Josef & Steger, Thomas M., 2008. "Multidimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numerical Procedure," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 301-319, June.
    21. Thomas F. Crossley & Hamish W. Low, 2011. "Is The Elasticity Of Intertemporal Substitution Constant?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 87-105, February.
    22. Carter, Patrick & Postel-Vinay, Fabien & Temple, Jonathan, 2015. "Dynamic aid allocation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 291-304.
    23. Alonso-Carrera, Jaime & Raurich, Xavier, 2015. "Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 359-374.
    24. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 667-682.
    25. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Huikang Ying, 2014. "Growth and Structural Change in a Dynamic Lagakos-Waugh Model," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 14/639, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    27. Felice, Giulia, 2016. "Size and composition of public investment, sectoral composition and growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 136-158.
    28. Robert S. Chirinko, 2008. "ó: The Long And Short Of It," CESifo Working Paper Series 2234, CESifo.
    29. Xavier Irz & Terry Roe, 2005. "Seeds of growth? Agricultural productivity and the transitional dynamics of the Ramsey model," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 32(2), pages 143-165, June.
    30. Michael Knoblach & Martin Roessler & Patrick Zwerschke, 2020. "The Elasticity of Substitution Between Capital and Labour in the US Economy: A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(1), pages 62-82, February.
    31. Gaaitzen de Vries & Marcel Timmer & Klaas de Vries, 2015. "Structural Transformation in Africa: Static Gains, Dynamic Losses," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 674-688, June.
    32. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1989. "Understanding Japan's saving rate: the reconstruction hypothesis," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 13(Spr), pages 10-25.
    33. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
    34. Piyabha Kongsamut & Sergio Rebelo & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(4), pages 869-882.
    35. Simon Alder & Timo Boppart & Andreas Müller, 2022. "A Theory of Structural Change That Can Fit the Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 160-206, April.
    36. Alejandro Cunat & Marco Maffezzoli, 2004. "Neoclassical Growth and Commodity Trade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 707-736, July.
    37. Jaume Ventura, 2005. "A Global View of Economic Growth," Working Papers 203, Barcelona School of Economics.
    38. Foster, Andrew D. & Rosenzweig, Mark R., 2008. "Economic Development and the Decline of Agricultural Employment," Handbook of Development Economics, in: T. Paul Schultz & John A. Strauss (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 47, pages 3051-3083, Elsevier.
    39. Leamer, Edward E, 1987. "Paths of Development in the Three-Factor, n-Good General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 961-999, October.
    40. Robertson, Peter E, 1999. "Economic Growth and the Return to Capital in Developing Economies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 577-594, October.
    41. Mr. Giovanni Melina & Mr. Rafael A Portillo, 2018. "Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2018/040, International Monetary Fund.
    42. Mundlak, Yair & Larson, Donald F, 1992. "On the Transmission of World Agricultural Prices," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(3), pages 399-422, September.
    43. Jaume Ventura, 1997. "Growth and Interdependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 57-84.
    44. Rebelo, Sergio, 1992. "Growth in open economies," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 5-46, July.
    45. Steven A. Block, 2014. "The post-independence decline and rise of crop productivity in sub-Saharan Africa: measurement and explanations," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 373-396.
    46. Bliss, Christopher, 2007. "Trade, Growth, and Inequality," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199204649.
    47. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2008. "The Depressing Effect of Agricultural Institutions on the Prewar Japanese Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(4), pages 573-632, August.
    48. Dietrich Vollrath, 2011. "The agricultural basis of comparative development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 343-370, December.
    49. Knoblach, Michael & Rößler, Martin & Zwerschke, Patrick, 2016. "The Elasticity of Factor Substitution Between Capital and Labor in the U.S. Economy: A Meta-Regression Analysis," CEPIE Working Papers 03/16, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    50. Mr. Sergio Rebelo & Ms. Piyabha Kongsamut & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," IMF Working Papers 2001/085, International Monetary Fund.
    51. Wingender, Asger Moll, 2015. "Skill complementarity and the dual economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 269-285.
    52. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2013. "No Mangoes in the Tundra: Spatial Heterogeneity in Agricultural Productivity Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(6), pages 914-939, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gillman, Max, 2021. "Steps in industrial development through human capital deepening," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonathan Temple & Huikang Ying & Patrick Carter, 2014. "Transfers and Transformations: Remittances, Foreign Aid, and Growth," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 14/649, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK, revised 02 Dec 2014.
    2. Monteforte, Fabio, 2020. "Structural change, the push-pull hypothesis and the Spanish labour market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 148-169.
    3. Patrick Carter & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2017. "Virtuous Circles and the Case for Aid," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(2), pages 397-425, June.
    4. Ju, Jiandong & Lin, Justin Yifu & Wang, Yong, 2015. "Endowment structures, industrial dynamics, and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 244-263.
    5. Huikang Ying, 2014. "Growth and Structural Change in a Dynamic Lagakos-Waugh Model," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 14/639, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    6. Mariarosaria Comunale & Giulia Felice, 2019. "An empirical investigation of the relationship between trade and structural change," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 62, Bank of Lithuania.
    7. Teignier, Marc, 2018. "The role of trade in structural transformation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 45-65.
    8. Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco & Long, Ngo & Poschke, Markus, 2017. "Capital-labor substitution, structural change and growth," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), September.
    9. Cao, Kang Hua & Birchenall, Javier A., 2013. "Agricultural productivity, structural change, and economic growth in post-reform China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 165-180.
    10. Alonso-Carrera, Jaime & Raurich, Xavier, 2018. "Labor mobility, structural change and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 292-310.
    11. Diego Comin & Danial Lashkari & Martí Mestieri, 2021. "Structural Change With Long‐Run Income and Price Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 311-374, January.
    12. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Felice, Giulia, 2022. "Trade and structural change: An empirical investigation," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 58-79.
    13. Jaime Alonso-Carrera & Giulia Felice & Xavier Raurich, 2018. "Inequality and Structural Change under Non-Linear Engels' Curve," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2018/374, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    15. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski & Martí Mestieri & Daniel G. O'Connor, 2020. "The Stable Transformation Path," NBER Working Papers 27731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Manuel García‐Santana & Josep Pijoan‐Mas & Lucciano Villacorta, 2021. "Investment Demand and Structural Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2751-2785, November.
    17. Gangopadhyay, Kausik & Mondal, Debasis, 2021. "Productivity, relative sectoral prices, and total factor productivity: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    18. Sáenz, Luis Felipe, 2022. "Time-varying capital intensities and the hump-shaped evolution of economic activity in manufacturing," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Yang, Dennis Tao & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2013. "Modernization of agriculture and long-term growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 367-382.
    20. Barker, Tom & Üngör, Murat, 2019. "Vietnam: The next asian Tiger?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 96-118.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural transformation; agriculture; development policies; investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:19/716. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vicky Jackson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sebriuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.