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End of the Supercycle and Growth of Commodity Producers: The Case of Chile

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  • Mr. Luc Eyraud

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of copper prices on Chile’s growth at various time horizons. We find that a price decline is likely to have a durable (although not permanent) effect on GDP growth: while the impact is the strongest in the first 3 years after the shock, the transition towards the new lower steady-state GDP level generally takes 5–10 years. From a production function perspective, the GDP growth slowdown is mainly driven by lower capital accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Luc Eyraud, 2015. "End of the Supercycle and Growth of Commodity Producers: The Case of Chile," IMF Working Papers 2015/242, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/242
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Medina, Juan Pablo, 2021. "Mining development and macroeconomic spillovers in Chile," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Roman Grynberg & Teresa Kaulihowa & Fwasa K Singogo, 2019. "Structural Changes of the 21st Century and their Impact on the Gold Price," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(3), pages 72-83.
    3. Patrick Blagrave & Marika Santoro, 2016. "Estimating Potential Output in Chile: A Multivariate Filter for Mining and Non-Mining Sectors," IMF Working Papers 2016/201, International Monetary Fund.

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