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Estimating Potential Output in Chile: A Multivariate Filter for Mining and Non-Mining Sectors

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  • Patrick Blagrave
  • Marika Santoro

Abstract

Using a multivariate filter, we estimate potential growth rates in Chile’s mining and non-mining sectors. Estimates for the mining sector incorporate information on copper prices, whereas estimates for non-mining reflect information on inflation and unemployment rates. To better understand the drivers of potential growth, we decompose estimates into capital, labor (adjusted for human-capital and hours worked), and total-factor productivity using a production-function. Our estimates of potential output in Chile suggest that an important part of the recent growth slowdown has been structural, with potential-output growth slowing to 2½ percent in recent years, although it plausibly could be higher in the medium-term.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Blagrave & Marika Santoro, 2016. "Estimating Potential Output in Chile: A Multivariate Filter for Mining and Non-Mining Sectors," IMF Working Papers 2016/201, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/201
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    Cited by:

    1. Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz, 2017. "Mining Spillovers in Chile," IMF Working Papers 2017/177, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Francisco Arroyo Marioli & Juan Sebastián Becerra & Matías Solorza, 2021. "The Credit Channel Through the Lens of a Semi- Structural Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 911, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. José De Gregorio, 2018. "Productivity in Emerging Market Economies: Slowdown or Stagnation?," Working Papers wp471, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    4. Arroyo Marioli, Francisco & Becerra, Juan Sebastián & Solorza, Matías, 2022. "The credit channel in chile through the lens of a semi-structural model," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(2).

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