IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v23y2017icp239-245.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of International capital flows on emerging markets’ sovereign risk premium – demand vs. vulnerability effect

Author

Listed:
  • Konopczak, Karolina
  • Konopczak, Michał

Abstract

In recent years many developing economies attracted significant foreign capital. An increased share of non-residents in public debt affects sovereign bond yields in two opposing ways: triggering a downward pressure on yields in reaction to increased demand, and an upward pressure reflective of overreliance on external funding and greater vulnerability to sudden stops of capital inflows. Based on panel cointegration analysis of 14 emerging economies, this study – contrary to previous empirical literature – indicates that in the long run the positive-signed vulnerability effect may prevail over the negative-signed demand effect, though with significant heterogeneity across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Konopczak, Karolina & Konopczak, Michał, 2017. "Impact of International capital flows on emerging markets’ sovereign risk premium – demand vs. vulnerability effect," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 239-245.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:239-245
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2017.07.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612317301186
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2017.07.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Diego S. P. Oliveira & Helder Ferreira Mendonça, 2016. "Sovereign Credit Ratings in Developing Economies: New Empirical Assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 382-397, October.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison, 2016. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 317-356, June.
    3. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Amine Mati & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2008/259, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    5. Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, 2010. "Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets’ Local Currency Bond Markets," IMF Working Papers 2010/088, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, T., 2011. "Panels with non-stationary multifactor error structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 326-348, February.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Tosetti, Elisa, 2011. "Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 182-202, April.
    10. Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, February.
    11. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Elisa Tosetti, 2011. "Weak and strong cross‐section dependence and estimation of large panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 45-90, February.
    12. Eaton, Jonathan, 1996. "Sovereign Debt, Reputation and Credit Terms," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 25-35, January.
    13. Laura Jaramillo & Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang, 2013. "Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2013/254, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Carvalho, Daniel & Fidora, Michael, 2015. "Capital inflows and euro area long-term interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 186-204.
    15. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2012. "Capital Debt -and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 676, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    17. Mahmood Pradhan & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Reza Baqir & Mr. Geoffrey M Heenan & Sylwia Nowak & Ceyda Oner & Mr. Sanjaya P Panth, 2011. "Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2011/010, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
    19. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    20. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2014. "Debt-and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 9, pages 291-322, Central Bank of Chile.
    21. Ahmed, Shaghil & Coulibaly, Brahima & Zlate, Andrei, 2017. "International financial spillovers to emerging market economies: How important are economic fundamentals?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 133-152.
    22. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Mr. Takahiro Tsuda, 2014. "Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 2014/039, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    24. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    25. Ms. Prachi Mishra & Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Lam Nguyen, 2014. "Impact of Fed Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2014/109, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Mahmood Pradhan & Ravi Balakrishnan & Reza Baqir & Geoffrey M Heenan & Sylwia Nowak & Ceyda Oner & Sanjaya P Panth, 2011. "Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/10, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
    28. Martin Feldstein, 1999. "Self-Protection for Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 6907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Ms. Annette J Kyobe, 2015. "Global Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Markets," IMF Working Papers 2015/141, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    31. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-734, September.
    32. Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, 2015. "Cointegration in Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross‐Section Dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 1-23, January.
    33. Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Miss Yinqiu Lu, 2014. "Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Yields and Foreign Holdings in the Post-Lehman Period - a Fortune or Misfortune?," IMF Working Papers 2014/029, International Monetary Fund.
    34. repec:hal:journl:peer-00796743 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky, 2012. "Government Bonds and their Investors: What Are the Facts and Do they Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2012/158, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elena Stupnikova & Tatyana Sukhadolets, 2019. "Construction Sector Role in Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Empirical Data from Russia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Karkowska, Renata & Urjasz, Szczepan, 2021. "Connectedness structures of sovereign bond markets in Central and Eastern Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Liu, Qiming & Liu, Zhenya & Moussa, Faten & Mu, Yuhao, 2024. "International capital flow in a period of high inflation: The case of China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    4. Luitel, Prabesh & Vanpée, Rosanne, 2018. "How do sovereign credit ratings help to financially develop low-developed countries?," ECMI Papers 13956, Centre for European Policy Studies.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Konopczak, Michal, 2015. "Government debt holdings of non-residents – an analysis of the impact on selected emerging economies’ sovereign risk," MPRA Paper 68597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bonizzi, Bruno, 2017. "Institutional investors’ allocation to emerging markets: A panel approach to asset demand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 47-64.
    3. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    4. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    5. Conterius, Simeon & Akimov, Alexandr & Su, Jen-Je & Roca, Eduardo, 2023. "Do foreign investors have a positive impact on the domestic government bonds market? A panel pooled mean group approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 863-875.
    6. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2013. "No Mangoes in the Tundra: Spatial Heterogeneity in Agricultural Productivity Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(6), pages 914-939, December.
    7. Michele Manna & Stefano Nobili, 2023. "Banks' holdings of and trading in government bonds," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 257-283, January.
    8. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    9. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2008. "Modeling Technology and Technological Change in Manufacturing: How do Countries Differ?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    10. Topcu, Mert & Payne, James E., 2018. "Further evidence on the trade-energy consumption nexus in OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 160-165.
    11. Gonzalez, Ignacio & Trivin, Pedro, 2019. "The Global Rise of Asset Prices and the Decline of the Labor Share," MPRA Paper 94587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Sadorsky, Perry, 2014. "The effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions in emerging economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 147-153.
    13. Cern Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2012. "Spatial autoregressive spillovers vs unobserved common factors models. A panel data analysis of international technology diffusion," INRA UMR CESAER Working Papers 2012/9, INRA UMR CESAER, Centre d'’Economie et Sociologie appliquées à l'’Agriculture et aux Espaces Ruraux.
    14. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2021. "Does Public Debt Ownership Structure Matter for a Borrowing Country?," Working Papers REM 2021/0190, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    15. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin, 2017. "Natural Resources and Economic Development: New Panel Evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(2), pages 363-391, February.
    16. Dierk Herzer, 2019. "The long-run effect of aid on health: evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(12), pages 1319-1338, March.
    17. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2014. "Dépendance individuelle forte et faible : une analyse en données de panel de la diffusion internationale de la technologie," Working Papers halshs-01015208, HAL.
    18. Markus Eberhardt, 2012. "Estimating panel time-series models with heterogeneous slopes," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(1), pages 61-71, March.
    19. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    20. In Choi, 2012. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging markets; Sovereign risk; International capital flows; Panel cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:239-245. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.