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Boosting Competitiveness to Grow Out of Debt: Can Ireland Find a Way Back to Its Future?

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  • Ms. Mwanza Nkusu

Abstract

This paper investigates the prospects for Ireland to grow its economy against the backdrop of high indebtedness. The paper uses vector autoregressive analysis to explore the interlinkages among competitiveness, exports, economic growth, and fiscal performance. The emerging conclusion is that Ireland, which has regained cost competitiveness following the crisis-driven fall in domestic prices, is poised to return to its path of strong exports and economic growth and lower imbalances provided that it maintains competitiveness, though a pickup in external demand is critical. Three main findings underpin this conclusion. First, external demand is an important driver of exports and also the single most important determinant of Ireland’s GDP and government revenue. Second, declines in price competitiveness, featured by real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciations, restrain exports and economic growth. Third, exports boost output, which in turn enhances fiscal performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, 2013. "Boosting Competitiveness to Grow Out of Debt: Can Ireland Find a Way Back to Its Future?," IMF Working Papers 2013/035, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Iacovone, Leonardo & Ferro, Esteban & Pereira-López, Mariana & Zavacka, Veronika, 2019. "Banking crises and exports: Lessons from the past," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 192-204.
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    4. Mr. Daniel S Kanda, 2008. "Spillovers to Ireland," IMF Working Papers 2008/002, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    7. Bermingham, Colin & Conefrey, Thomas, 2014. "The Irish macroeconomic response to an external shock with an application to stress testing," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 454-470.
    8. Daniela Federici & Daniela Marconi, 2001. "On exports and economic growth: the case of Italy," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 323-340.
    9. Everett, Mary, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment - An Analysis of its Significance," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 93-112, October.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, And Spain: Competitiveness In The Southern Euro Area," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/145, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Joong S Kang & Mr. Jay C Shambaugh, 2014. "Progress Towards External Adjustment in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics," IMF Working Papers 2014/131, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Joong S Kang & Mr. Jay C Shambaugh, 2013. "The Evolution of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics: Many Paths to the Same Endpoint," IMF Working Papers 2013/169, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Thierry Tressel & Mr. Shengzu Wang, 2014. "Rebalancing in the Euro Area and Cyclicality of Current Account Adjustments," IMF Working Papers 2014/130, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Nicholas Crafts, 2014. "Ireland’s Medium-Term Growth Prospects: a Phoenix Rising?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(1), pages 87-112.

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