IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ememar/v18y2014icp1-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of domestic credit levels in emerging markets: The role of external factors

Author

Listed:
  • Gozgor, Giray

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the determinants of domestic credit expansion across a wide range of 24 emerging market economies. We use a dynamic panel data estimation technique to investigate the short-run and long-run effects of internal demand and external supply factors, external balance, different measures of trade openness and global uncertainty on domestic credit. We find that loose monetary policy in the domestic market, differences between domestic and global lending rates and real trade openness positively contribute to domestic credit levels. The findings also show that external balance and perceptions of global tail risk negatively affect domestic credit levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Gozgor, Giray, 2014. "Determinants of domestic credit levels in emerging markets: The role of external factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:18:y:2014:i:c:p:1-18
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2013.11.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566014113000745
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ememar.2013.11.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, XingWang, 2012. "Are Chinese trade flows different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2127-2146.
    3. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Herrala, Risto & Weill, Laurent, 2013. "The influence of bank ownership on credit supply: Evidence from the recent financial crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 136-147.
    4. Ari Aisen & Michael Franken, 2015. "Bank credit during the 2008 financial crisis: a cross-country comparison," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 18(1), pages 26-49, April.
    5. Furceri, Davide & Guichard, Stéphanie & Rusticelli, Elena, 2012. "The effect of episodes of large capital inflows on domestic credit," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 325-344.
    6. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Luis Garicano & Tano Santos, 2013. "Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Eurozone," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 145-166, Summer.
    7. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
    8. Stefan Avdjiev & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Rapid credit growth and international credit: Challenges for Asia," BIS Working Papers 377, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Arndt Christian & Buch Claudia M & Schnitzer Monika E, 2010. "FDI and Domestic Investment: An Industry-Level View," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, July.
    10. Kulwant Rai & Herman Kamil, 2010. "The Global Credit Crunch and Foreign Banks’ Lending to Emerging Markets: Why Did Latin America Fare Better?," IMF Working Papers 2010/102, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: Challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1426-1461, December.
    13. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Ghosh, Atish R. & Chamon, Marcos & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2012. "Tools for managing financial-stability risks from capital inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 407-421.
    14. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2014. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 6, pages 165-204, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Nicolas E. Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart & Esteban R. Vesperoni, 2014. "Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility and Credit Booms," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 415-430, August.
    16. Elod Takats, 2010. "Was it credit supply? Cross-border bank lending to emerging market economies during the financial crisis," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    17. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    18. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    19. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    20. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Brent Neiman, 2011. "Trade Prices and the Global Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," NBER Working Papers 17594, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    22. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    23. Suk-Joong Kim & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Sovereign Credit Ratings, Capital Flows and Financial Sector Development in Emerging Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 13, pages 431-466, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    24. Manuel Agosin & Roberto Machado, 2005. "Foreign Investment in Developing Countries: Does it Crowd in Domestic Investment?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 149-162.
    25. Mamatzakis, E. & Staikouras, C. & Koutsomanoli-Fillipaki, N., 2005. "Competition and concentration in the banking sector of the South Eastern European region," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 192-209, June.
    26. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    27. Carlos Montoro & Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2012. "Credit in times of stress: lessons from Latin America," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    28. Sebastian Edwards, 2012. "The Federal Reserve, the Emerging Markets, and Capital Controls: A High-Frequency Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 151-184, December.
    29. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    31. Elekdag, Selim & Han, Fei, 2015. "What drives credit growth in emerging Asia?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
    32. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    33. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "The Credit Boom in the EU New Member States: Bad Luck or Bad Policies?," IMF Working Papers 2010/130, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Mr. Nikola Spatafora & Ms. Oana Luca, 2012. "Capital Inflows, Financial Development, and Domestic Investment: Determinants and Inter-Relationships," IMF Working Papers 2012/120, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Sebastian Edwards, 2012. "The Federal Reserve, Emerging Markets, and Capital Controls: A High Frequency Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 18557, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "Monetary policy flexibility, risk management, and financial disruptions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 242-246, June.
    37. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    38. Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Yiqun Wu, 2011. "Rapid Credit Growth: Boon or Boom-Bust?," IMF Working Papers 2011/241, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Claudio Borio & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2011. "Global credit and domestic credit booms," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    40. Sumei Tang & E. A. Selvanathan & S. Selvanathan, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in China: A Time Series Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(10), pages 1292-1309, October.
    41. Vahram Stepanyan & Kai Guo, 2011. "Determinants of Bank Credit in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/051, International Monetary Fund.
    42. Ms. Laura E. Kodres & Kristian Hartelius & Kenichiro Kashiwase, 2008. "Emerging Market Spread Compression: Is it Real or is it Liquidity?," IMF Working Papers 2008/010, International Monetary Fund.
    43. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Park,Haelim & Ruiz Ortega,Claudia & Tressel,Thierry, 2015. "Determinants of long-term versus short-term bank credit in EU countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7436, The World Bank.
    2. Adriana Uquillas, 2017. "Determinantes del riesgo comportamental en préstamos de consumo y microcrédito: Un estudio de caso en Centro América," Revista de Investigación en Ciencias Contables y Administrativas, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Facultad de Contaduría y Ciencias Administrativas, vol. 3(1), pages 35-66, July.
    3. Lepers, Etienne & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2020. "Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4aoteiu16h99cpn1k5mh5eioj0 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Sari, Emre, 2018. "Dynamics of the Turkish paintings market: A comprehensive empirical study," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 180-194.
    6. René Cabral & Francisco G. Carneiro & André Varella Mollick, 2020. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility in emerging markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 605-626, February.
    7. Jerome Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "The intertwining of financialisation and financial instability," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2015-14, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    8. Giray Gozgor, 2015. "Causal relation between economic growth and domestic credit in the economic globalization: Evidence from the Hatemi-J's test," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 395-408, April.
    9. Emna Trabelsi, 2019. "Do independence and transparency matter for bank development? A new lookup on emerging and developing countries," Post-Print hal-02162780, HAL.
    10. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2021. "The intertwining of credit and banking fragility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 459-475, January.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4aoteiu16h99cpn1k5mh5eioj0 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2016. "Commodity markets volatility transmission: Roles of risk perceptions and uncertainty in financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 35-45.
    13. Gozgor, Giray, 2014. "Aggregated and disaggregated import demand in China: An empirical study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-8.
    14. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Sheng, Xin, 2018. "The effects of uncertainty measures on the price of gold," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-7.
    15. Ali Awdeh, 2017. "The Determinants of Credit Growth in Lebanon," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(2), pages 9-19, February.
    16. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2015. "Determinants of Bank Lending," Working Papers hal-01158241, HAL.
    17. Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Determinants of the domestic credits in developing economies: The role of political risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 430-443.
    18. Batten, Jonathan A. & Jacoby, Gady & Liao, Rose C., 2014. "Corporate yield spreads and real interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-100.
    19. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.
    20. Gozgor, Giray & Demir, Ender & Belas, Jaroslav & Yesilyurt, Serkan, 2019. "Does economic uncertainty affect domestic credits? an empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    21. Dorothy Nampewo & Grace Ainomugisha Tinyinondi & Duncan Roy Kawooya & George Wilson Ssonko, 2016. "Determinants of private sector credit in Uganda: the role of mobile money," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Determinants of the domestic credits in developing economies: The role of political risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 430-443.
    2. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2015. "Determinants of Bank Lending," Working Papers hal-01158241, HAL.
    3. Gozgor, Giray & Demir, Ender & Belas, Jaroslav & Yesilyurt, Serkan, 2019. "Does economic uncertainty affect domestic credits? an empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Davis, J. Scott & Mack, Adrienne & Phoa, Wesley & Vandenabeele, Anne, 2016. "Credit booms, banking crises, and the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
    5. Miguel Angel Saldarriaga, 2017. "Credit Booms in Commodity Exporters," Working Papers 98, Peruvian Economic Association.
    6. repec:dgr:rugsom:14021-gem is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Samarina, Anna & Bezemer, Dirk, 2016. "Do capital flows change domestic credit allocation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 98-121.
    8. Samarina, Anna & Bezemer, Dirk, 2014. "Capital Flows and Financial Intermediation: is EMU different?," Research Report 14021-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    9. Bezemer, Dirk & Zhang, L, 2014. "From boom to bust in the credit cycle," Research Report 14025-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    10. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    11. Patty Duijm, 2022. "Foreign‐funded credit: Funding the credit cycle?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 167-182, August.
    12. Yi, Xingjian & Liu, Sheng & Wu, Zhouheng, 2022. "What drives credit expansion worldwide?——An empirical investigation with long-term cross-country panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 225-242.
    13. Fendoğlu, Salih, 2017. "Credit cycles and capital flows: Effectiveness of the macroprudential policy framework in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 110-128.
    14. Varlik Serdar & Berument M. Hakan, 2016. "Credit channel and capital flows: a macroprudential policy tool? Evidence from Turkey," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 145-170, January.
    15. Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Interlinkages between external debt financing, credit cycles and output fluctuations in emerging market economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 965-1001, November.
    16. Kumhof, Michael & Sokol, Andrej & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2020. "How Does International Capital Flow?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Fabiani, Andrea & Piñeros, Martha López & Peydró, José-Luis & Soto, Paul E., 2022. "Capital controls, domestic macroprudential policy and the bank lending channel of monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    18. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2019. "Ride the Wild Surf: An investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 112-136.
    19. Puspa D. Amri & Greg M. Richey & Thomas D. Willett, 2016. "Capital Surges and Credit Booms: How Tight is the Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 637-670, September.
    20. Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2018. "Why do firms default on their foreign currency loans? The case of Hungary," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 207-222.
    21. Thornton, John & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2023. "Bank regulations and surges and stops in credit: Panel evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging market economies; Domestic credit; Loose monetary policy; External balance; Perception of global tail risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:18:y:2014:i:c:p:1-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.