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A toolkit for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks in Advanced Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard
  • Mr. Emre Alper
  • Jiri Jonas
  • Miss Anke Weber
  • Mr. Marc Gerard
  • Mr. Tidiane Kinda
  • Giovanni Callegari
  • Ms. Anna Shabunina
  • Ms. Andrea Schaechter
  • Carlos Caceres

Abstract

This paper presents a range of tools and indicators for analyzing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks for advanced economies. The analysis covers key short-, medium- and long-term dimensions. Short-term pressures are captured by assessing (i) gross funding needs, (ii) market perceptions of default risk, and (iii) stress dependence among sovereigns. Medium- and long-term pressures are summarized by (iv) medium- and long-term budgetary adjustment needs, (v) susceptibility of debt projections to growth and interest rate shocks, and (vi) stochastic risks to medium-term debt dynamics. Aiming to cover a wide range of advanced economies and minimize data lags, has also influenced the selection of empirical methods. Due to these features, they can, for example, help inform the joint IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise (EWE) on the fiscal dimensions of economic risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard & Mr. Emre Alper & Jiri Jonas & Miss Anke Weber & Mr. Marc Gerard & Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Giovanni Callegari & Ms. Anna Shabunina & Ms. Andrea Schaechter & Carlos Caceres, 2012. "A toolkit for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2012/011, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. John Muellbauer, 2013. "Conditional eurobonds and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 610-645, AUTUMN.
    2. Andreea Stoian & Laura Obreja Brașoveanu & Iulian Viorel Brașoveanu & Bogdan Dumitrescu, 2018. "A Framework to Assess Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for European Union Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2014. "Exploring the effects of financial and fiscal vulnerabilities on G7 economies: Evidence from SVAR analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 343-367.
    4. Rudolf Alvise Lennkh & Edmund Moshammer & Vilém Valenta, 2017. "A Comprehensive Scorecard for Assessing Sovereign Vulnerabilities," Working Papers 23, European Stability Mechanism.
    5. Andrea Schaechter & C. Emre Alper & Elif Arbatli & Carlos Caceres & Giovanni Callegari & Marc Gerard & Jiri Jonas & Tidiane Kinda & Anna Shabunina & Anke Weber, 2014. "A toolkit to assess fiscal vulnerabilities and risks in advanced economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 650-660, February.
    6. Ludovit Odor, 2014. "Fiscal Risk Assessment at the CBR: A Conceptual Framework," Discussion Papers Discussion Paper No. 1/20, Council for Budget Responsibility.

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