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An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Jordanian Economy

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  • Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
  • Samya Beidas-Strom

Abstract

This paper presents and estimates a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model (DSGE) for the Jordanian economy. The model features nominal and real rigidities, imperfect competition and habit formation in the consumer’s utility function. Oil imports are explicitly modeled in the consumption basket and domestic production. Bayesian estimation methods are employed on quarterly Jordanian data. The model’s properties are described by impulse response analysis of identified structural shocks pertinent to the economy. These properties assess the effectiveness of the pegged exchange rate regime in minimizing inflation and output trade-offs. The estimates of the structural parameters fall within plausible ranges, and simulation results suggest that while the peg amplifies output, consumption and (price and wage) inflation volatility, it offers a relatively low risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tigran Poghosyan & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Jordanian Economy," IMF Working Papers 2011/028, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    2. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 11417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2001. "Comparing dynamic equilibrium economies to data," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2001-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Ms. Magda E. Kandil & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2005. "Setting the Stage for a National Currency in the West Bank and Gaza: The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 2005/070, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2022. "The contribution of food subsidy policy to monetary policy in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Yang, Bo, 2024. "Oil price shocks and macroeconomic dynamics in resource-rich emerging economies under regime shifts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2022. "The Contribution of Food Subsidy Policy to Monetary Policy in India," Working Papers hal-02944209, HAL.
    4. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2020. "Oil price shocks, fuel subsidies and macroeconomic (in)stability in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 105464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Haykaz Igityan & Hovhannes Manukyan, 2020. "Fitting Armenian Data to the Simple DSGE Model with Permanent Productivity Growth," Working Papers 14, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia.
    6. Mohaddes Kamiar & Raissi Mehdi, 2013. "Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 99-131, August.
    7. Samya Beidas-Strom & Marco Lorusso, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK," IMF Working Papers 2019/214, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Lawrence B. Dacuycuy & Fernando T. Aldaba, 2024. "Development of a Fiscal-Centric DSGE Model in Aid of Policy Evaluation," Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University, Working Paper Series 202405, Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University.
    9. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2020. "Should a central bank react to food inflation? Evidence from an estimated model for Chile," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 221-234.
    10. Arintoko & Insukindro, 2017. "Effect of Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investment and Portfolio Investment on the Indonesian Economy: A Structural Cointegrating Vector Autoregression Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 682-691.
    11. Hu, Zhining, 2022. "Six types of government policies and housing prices in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    12. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2019. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in Nigeria: Some Insights from an Estimated DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 98351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of Oil Shocks in a Small Open Economy New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for South Africa," Working Papers 201652, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    Keywords

    WP; interest rate; exchange rate;
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