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Comparing Dynamic Equilibrium Economies to Data

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  • Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
  • Juan F. Rubio

Abstract

This paper studies the properties of the Bayesian approach to estimation and comparison of dynamic equilibrium economies. Both tasks can be performed even if the models are nonnested, misspecified, and nonlinear. First, the authors show that Bayesian methods have a classical interpretation: asymptotically the parameter point estimates converge to their pseudotrue values, and the best model under the Kullback-Leibler will have the highest posterior probability. Second, they illustrate the strong small sample behavior of the approach using a well-known application: the U.S. cattle cycle. Bayesian estimates outperform maximum likelihood results, and the proposed model is easily compared with a set of BVARs.
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  • Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio, 2003. "Comparing Dynamic Equilibrium Economies to Data," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000309, David K. Levine.
    • Handle: RePEc:cla:levarc:506439000000000309
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    2. Mr. Tigran Poghosyan & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Jordanian Economy," IMF Working Papers 2011/028, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ramón María-Dolores & Jesús Vázquez, 2008. "Term structure and the estimated monetary policy rule in the Eurozone," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 251-277, December.
    4. Galí, Jordi & Rabanal, Pau, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Post-War US Data?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Dibartolomeo, Giovanni & Rossi, Lorenza & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2004. "Monetary Policy under Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: An International Empirical Comparison," MPRA Paper 1094, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006.
    6. Aruoba, S. Boragan & Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2006. "Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2477-2508, December.
    7. Milani, Fabio, 2009. "Expectations, learning, and the changing relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 827-837, November.
    8. Yongsung Chang & Joao F. Gomes & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Learning-by-Doing as a Propagation Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1498-1520, December.
    9. Leonardo Melosi, 2009. "A Likelihood Analysis of Models with Information Frictions," 2009 Meeting Papers 1034, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Testing for Indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 214, Society for Computational Economics.
    11. Simona Delle Chiaie, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Potential Output Uncertainty: A Quantitative Assessment," CEIS Research Paper 94, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    12. Pau Rabanal & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2008. "Comparing new Keynesian models in the Euro area: a Bayesian approach," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 23-40, March.
    13. Federico S. Mandelman & Francesco Zanetti, 2008. "Estimating general equilibrium models: an application with labour market frictions," Technical Books, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, edition 1, number 1, April.
    14. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2004. "Estimating nonlinear dynamic equilibrium economies: a likelihood approach," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    15. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2001. "Nominal versus real wage rigidities: A Bayesian approach," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2001-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    16. Klaeffling, Matt, 2003. "Macroeconomic modelling of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 257, European Central Bank.
    17. Mr. Vadim Khramov, 2012. "Assessing Dsge Models with Capital Accumulation and Indeterminacy," IMF Working Papers 2012/083, International Monetary Fund.

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