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Crisis and Recovery: Role of the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Market Countries

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  • Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides

Abstract

This paper examines the role of the exchange rate regime in explaining how emerging market economies fared in the recent global financial crisis, particularly in terms of output losses and growth resilience. After controlling for regime switches during the crisis, using alternative definitions for pegs, and taking account of other likely determinants, we find that the growth performance for pegs was not different from that of floats during the crisis. For the recovery period 2010-11, pegs appear to be faring worse, with growth recovering more slowly than floats. These results suggest an asymmetric effect of the regime during and recovering from the crisis. We also find that proxies of the trade and financial channels are important determinants of growth performance during the crisis, while only the trade channel appears important for the recovery thus far.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2010. "Crisis and Recovery: Role of the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/242, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/242
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    1. Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
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    2. V. Coudert & C. Couharde & V. Mignon, 2013. "Pegging emerging currencies in the face of dollar swings," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(36), pages 5076-5085, December.
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    4. Rudiger Ahrend & Antoine Goujard, 2012. "International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 3. How Do Structural Policies Affect Financial Crisis Risk?: Evidence from Past Crises Across OECD and Emerging Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 966, OECD Publishing.
    5. Towbin, Pascal & Weber, Sebastian, 2013. "Limits of floating exchange rates: The role of foreign currency debt and import structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 179-194.
    6. Eichengreen, Barry & Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2021. "The shape of recovery: Implications of past experience for the duration of the COVID-19 recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Bernhard Boehm & Ivan Kusen, 2018. "Iceland: High Growth, Low Inflation and Current Account Surpluses: What's behind this Remarkable Performance?," European Economy - Economic Briefs 037, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Kadia Besart, 2015. "†Fear of Floating†in Albania and Economic Growth," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(56), pages 19-32, June,.
    9. Shehzad, Choudhry Tanveer & De Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Was the 2007 crisis really a global banking crisis?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 113-124.
    10. Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
    11. Armand FOUEJIEU AZANGUE, 2012. "Coping with the Recent Financial Crisis, did Inflation Targeting Make Any Difference?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 370, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    12. Armand Fouejieu A., 2013. "Coping with the recent financial crisis: Did inflation targeting make any difference?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 133, pages 72-92.
    13. Masahiro Kawai & Shinji Takagi, 2012. "A Proposal for Exchange Rate Policy Coordination in East Asia," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), 2012. "Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14414.
    15. Eichengreen, Barry & Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2024. "Economic resilience: Why some countries recover more robustly than others from shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    16. Andrzej Wojtyna, 2013. "Kontrowersje wokół charakteru ożywienia po kryzysie finansowym i recesji," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 11-12, pages 5-21.
    17. Kosta Josifidis & Jean-Pierre Allegret & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2013. "Adjustment mechanisms and exchange rate regimes in 2004 new EU members during the financial crisis," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 1-17, March.
    18. Silvia Kirova, 2014. "Currency regimes and macroeconomic indicators of the derogation EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 80-99.
    19. Andrzej Wojtyna, 2011. "Standardowe i niestandardowe działania antykryzysowe w gospodarkach wschodzących," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 1-21.
    20. Aleksandra Iwulska & Naotaka Sugawara & Juan Zalduendo, 2012. "Financial Integration in Emerging Europe: an Enviable Development Opportunity with Tail Risks," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 438, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.

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