IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sec/cnstan/0438.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Integration in Emerging Europe: an Enviable Development Opportunity with Tail Risks

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksandra Iwulska
  • Naotaka Sugawara
  • Juan Zalduendo

Abstract

This paper draws on the experience of emerging Europe and argues that foreign capital is an enviable development opportunity with tail risks. Financial integration and foreign savings supported growth in the EU12 and EU candidate countries. We argue that this was possible because of EU membership (actual or potential) and its role as an anchor for expectations. In contrast, the eastern partnership states did not benefit from the foreign savings-growth link. But financial integration also led to a buildup of vulnerabilities and now exposes emerging Europe to prolonged uncertainty and financial deleveraging due to eurozone developments. Nonetheless, we believe that external imbalances should not be eradicated—nor should emerging Europe pursue a policy of self-insurance. Instead, what we refer to as an acyclical fiscal policy stance could serve to counterbalance private sector behavior. Going forward, a more proactive macroprudential policy will also be needed to limit financial system vulnerabilities when external imbalances are large.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandra Iwulska & Naotaka Sugawara & Juan Zalduendo, 2012. "Financial Integration in Emerging Europe: an Enviable Development Opportunity with Tail Risks," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 438, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0438
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://case-research.eu/sites/default/files/publications/CNSA_2012_438.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stojkov, Aleksandar & Zalduendo, Juan, 2011. "Europe as a convergence engine -- heterogeneity and investment opportunities in emerging Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5837, The World Bank.
    2. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
    3. Stijn Claessens & Neeltje Van Horen, 2014. "Foreign Banks: Trends and Impact," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 295-326, February.
    4. Giorgio Barba Navaretti & Giacomo Calzolari & Alberto Franco Pozzolo & Micol Levi, 2010. "Multinational banking in Europe – financial stability and regulatory implications: lessons from the financial crisis [Cross subsidies, external financing constraints, and the contribution of the in," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(64), pages 703-753.
    5. André Sapir, 2011. "A Comprehensive Approach to the Euro-Area Debt Crisis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/174297, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    7. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    8. Frait, Jan & Gersl, Adam & Seidler, Jakub, 2011. "Credit growth and financial stability in the Czech Republic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5771, The World Bank.
    9. Pradeep Mitra & Marcelo Selowsky & Juan Zalduendo, 2010. "Turmoil at Twenty : Recession, Recovery, and Reform in Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2682.
    10. Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "A tale of three countries- recovery after banking crises," Policy Contributions 663, Bruegel.
    11. Celeska, Frosina & Gligorova, Viktorija & Krstevska, Aneta, 2011. "Macroprudential regulation of credit booms and busts : the experience of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5770, The World Bank.
    12. Sutt, Andres & Korju, Helen & Siibak, Kadri, 2011. "The role of macro-prudential policies in the boom and adjustment phase of the credit cycle in Estonia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5835, The World Bank.
    13. Kenc, Turalay & Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Yildirim, Onur, 2011. "The experience with macro-prudential policies of the central bank of the republic of Turkey in response to the global financial crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5834, The World Bank.
    14. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    15. Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2012. "Crisis and recovery: Role of the exchange rate regime in emerging market economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 470-488.
    16. Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2010. "Crisis and Recovery: Role of the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/242, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Martin Raiser & Indermit S. Gill, 2012. "Golden Growth : Restoring the Lustre of the European Economic Model," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6016.
    18. Ghosh, Swati & Sugawara, Naotaka & Zalduendo, Juan, 2011. "Finding a balance between growth and vulnerability trade-offs : lessons from emerging Europe and the CIS," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5592, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Selim Yildirim & Bilge Kagan zdemir & Burhan Dogan, 2013. "Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus in Emerging European Economies: New Evidence from Asymmetric Causality," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 710-722.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gente, Karine & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & Nourry, Carine, 2015. "External constraints and endogenous growth: Why didn't some countries benefit from capital flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 223-249.
    2. Jinzhao Chen & Thérèse Quang, 2012. "International Financial Integration and Economic Growth: New Evidence on Threshold Effects," Working Papers halshs-00710139, HAL.
    3. Francisco J. Buera & Yongseok Shin, 2017. "Productivity Growth and Capital Flows: The Dynamics of Reforms," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 147-185, July.
    4. Cozzi, Guido & Davenport, Margaret, 2015. "The Imbalanced Catch-up to Rational Expectations: Capital Flows during Convergence," MPRA Paper 71009, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Apr 2016.
    5. Rudiger Ahrend & Antoine Goujard, 2012. "International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 3. How Do Structural Policies Affect Financial Crisis Risk?: Evidence from Past Crises Across OECD and Emerging Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 966, OECD Publishing.
    6. Eswar S. Prasad, 2011. "Role reversal in global finance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 339-390.
    7. Friedrich, Christian & Schnabel, Isabel & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2013. "Financial integration and growth — Why is Emerging Europe different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 522-538.
    8. Carroll, Christopher D. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2009. "A tractable model of precautionary reserves, net foreign assets, or sovereign wealth funds," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. Ayhan Kose, M. & Prasad, Eswar S. & Taylor, Ashley D., 2011. "Thresholds in the process of international financial integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 147-179, February.
    10. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    11. Md Arif-Ur-Rahman & Kazuo Inaba, 2020. "Financial integration and total factor productivity: in consideration of different capital controls and foreign direct investment," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, December.
    12. Mariam Camarero & Jesús Peiró-Palomino & Cecilio Tamarit, 2017. "External imbalances and growth," Working Papers 2017/02, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    13. Gehringer, Agnieszka, 2012. "Financial liberalization, growth, productivity and capital accumulation: The case of European integration," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 134, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    14. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2009. "Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 112-138, April.
    15. Ayhan Kose, M. & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does openness to international financial flows raise productivity growth?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 554-580, June.
    16. Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Turrini & Stefan Zeugner, 2018. "Methodologies for the Assessment of Current Account Benchmarks," European Economy - Discussion Papers 086, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    17. Chen, Jinzhao & Quang, Thérèse, 2014. "The impact of international financial integration on economic growth: New evidence on threshold effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 475-489.
    18. Camarero, Mariam & Peiró-Palomino, Jesús & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2019. "Growth in a time of external imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 262-275.
    19. Cozzi, Guido & Davenport, Margaret, 2017. "Extrapolative expectations and capital flows during convergence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 169-190.
    20. Benhima, Kenza, 2013. "A reappraisal of the allocation puzzle through the portfolio approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 331-346.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial integration; Emerging Europe; Capital inflows; Growth; Macroprudential policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0438. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Budzynska (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/caseepl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.