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Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

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  • Fabio Comelli

Abstract

This paper compares in-sample and out-of-sample performances of parametric and non-parametric early warning systems (EWS) for currency crises in emerging economies. The parametric EWS achieves superior out-of-sample results compared with the non-parametric EWS. The policymaker faces a trade-off when using EWS: greater cautiousness allows the policymaker to correctly call more crisis episodes, but this comes at the cost of issuing more false alarms. The benefit of correctly calling more currency crises needs to be traded off against the cost of issuing more false alarms and of implementing corrective policies prematurely.

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  • Fabio Comelli, 2014. "Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 700-721, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:22:y:2014:i:4:p:700-721
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/roie.12121
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    5. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Alberto Romero, 2019. "Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises with Real-Time Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 813-835, September.
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    10. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "The Effects of Productivity Shocks, Financial Shocks, and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 2545-2561, November.
    11. Umberto Collodel, 2021. "Finding a needle in a haystack: Do Early Warning Systems for Sudden Stops work?," PSE Working Papers halshs-03185520, HAL.
    12. Kim, Yun Jung, 2017. "Sudden stops, limited enforcement, and optimal reserves," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 273-282.
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    18. Chokri Abdelmajid Zehri, 2020. "Capital Restrictions Policies, Currency Appreciation and Foreign Debts," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 16(3), pages 149-159.
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    20. Rosa Agustina Oyong & Rustam Didong & Sugiharso Safuan & Perry Warjiyo, 2018. "Early Detection of Indonesia's Vulnerability to Currency Crisis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 196-204.
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