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Iceland: High Growth, Low Inflation and Current Account Surpluses: What's behind this Remarkable Performance?

Author

Listed:
  • Bernhard Boehm
  • Ivan Kusen

Abstract

Iceland currently features an impressive combination of favourable macroeconomic indicators, such as high output growth, low inflation and current account surpluses. This is in stark contrast to 10 years ago, when Iceland's economy was at the brink of collapse, suffering from a major banking crisis which erupted with the bursting of the 2007-2008 financial sector bubble. This country brief explores the main factors behind Iceland's remarkable economic recovery. Among others, the paper also analyses whether Iceland's sharp exchange rate depreciation in the wake of the crisis and its appreciation during the recovery has helped to smoothen the country's output fluctuations. The paper uses structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimates to assess the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Iceland's economy. Key ingredients for Iceland's strong economic performance have been a solid crisis response by Iceland's authorities, addressing the roots of the problem, and a flexible supply response, in particular on the labour market, which allowed accommodating a substantial positive external demand shock (tourism). Furthermore, the tourism-driven strong demand for Iceland's currency, the króna, supported an exchange rate appreciation, which helped to contain inflationary pressures. In addition, an increasing savings ratio kept import growth at bay, while the settlement of crisis-related debt helped to improve Iceland's external position. Overall, there have been many different factors contributing to Iceland's impressive recovery. Exchange rate flexibility has been only one of those, and probably not the most decisive one.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernhard Boehm & Ivan Kusen, 2018. "Iceland: High Growth, Low Inflation and Current Account Surpluses: What's behind this Remarkable Performance?," European Economy - Economic Briefs 037, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecobri:037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Beblavý,Miroslav & Cobham,David & Ódor,L'udovít (ed.), 2011. "The Euro Area and the Financial Crisis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107014749, October.
    2. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2016. "The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland - Part II: Financial cycles," Economics wp72, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    3. Dr. Jonas Stulz, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through in Switzerland: Evidence from vector autoregressions," Economic Studies 2007-04, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2010. "Crisis and Recovery: Role of the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/242, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2016. "Small open economies in the vast oceanof global high finance," Economics wp73, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Iceland; crisis; recovery; exchange rate flexibility; tourism; Iceland: High growth; low inflation and current account surpluses: What's behind this remarkable economic performance?; Boehm; Kusen.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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