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The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia: Is the Current Crisis Different?

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The countries of the Middle East and North Africa, and the Caucasus and Central Asia have the highest output volatility in the world. Fiscal policy is a powerful tool that can help dampen the business cycles. This paper analyzes the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in the region during the past four decades and explores whether the response during the current global economic crisis is different in 2009. Across a sample of 28 countries, we find that fiscal policy has typically amplified the business cycles and that it has been more procyclical in good times than in bad times. However, the response to the current crisis has differed from the past in that about half of the countries responded countercyclically in 2009. Going forward, the fiscal space during downturns varies widely across countries, depending on the level of debt, access to capital markets, and natural resource wealth. Not surprisingly, the oil exporters have more fiscal room than oil importers, although there are some oil importers that still have room to respond countercyclically in bad times.

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  • International Monetary Fund, 2010. "The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia: Is the Current Crisis Different?," IMF Working Papers 2010/068, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/068
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    2. Anita Angelovska Bezovska & Jane Bogoev & Ana Mitreska & Maja Kadievska Vojnovik, 2011. "Investigating the Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy in the Republic of Macedonia during the Period of Transition," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 13(1), pages 57-104, April.
    3. Elva Bova & Paulo Medas & Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "Macroeconomic Stability in Resource-rich Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(9), pages 103-122, May.
    4. Tsvetomir Tsvetkov & Sonya Georgieva, 2021. "Anti-Crisis Macroeconomic Policy in the Conditions of COVID-19 in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 107-130.
    5. Ms. Nese Erbil, 2011. "Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil-Producing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2011/171, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji, 2011. "How Strong are Fiscal Multipliers in the GCC?," IMF Working Papers 2011/061, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "Social expenditure cyclicality: New time-varying evidence in developing economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    8. Carlos Caceres & Serhan Cevik & Ricardo Fenochietto & Borja Gracia, 2015. "The Day After Tomorrow: Designing an Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Libya," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(4), pages 32-50, June.
    9. Jalles, João Tovar, 2021. "Dynamics of government spending cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 411-427.
    10. Baldi, Guido, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Institutions and Economic Transition in North Africa," MPRA Paper 48677, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Nese Erbil, 2011. "Cyclicality of Fiscal Behavior in Developing Oil-Producing Countries: An Empirical Review," Working Papers 638, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 Jan 2011.
    12. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "On the Cyclicality of Social Expenditure: New Time-Varying evidence from Developing Economies," Working Papers REM 2019/82, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. Dalia S. Hakura & Francesco Grigoli, 2014. "Recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan: have macroeconomic policies been effective?," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 45-65, January.
    14. João T. Jalles, 2020. "Explaining Africa's public consumption procyclicality: Revisiting old evidence," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 297-323, August.
    15. Magda Kandil, 2020. "Determinants of policy variations and macroeconomic implications," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 199-238, February.
    16. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "United Arab Emirates: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/112, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Magda Kandil & Nazire Nergiz Dincer, 2007. "A Comparative Analysis of Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Economic Activity: The Cases of Egypt and Turkey," Working Papers 722, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Jan 2007.
    18. Wirginia Doryñ & Micha³ Mackiewicz & Dorota Wawrzyniak, 2018. "The Role of Institutions in Determining the Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy," Lodz Economics Working Papers 2/2018, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.

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