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Gauging Risks for Deflation

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Jörg Decressin
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton

Abstract

This paper discusses deflation risks and policy options. The paper highlights that slumping collateral values have exacerbated the credit crunch, and monetary policy has lost effectiveness in stabilizing output. A model-based analysis for the G3 economies (United States, euro area, and Japan) also suggests that, on the assumption that the financial distress is gradually resolved, the most likely outcome is that the global economy will stay clear of sustained deflation. However, if financial sector problems are not remedied or further shocks add to current stresses, there is a significant probability of more negative deflationary outcomes, with a deeper and more prolonged recession. The chapter underscores the crucial role of financial sector policies in remedying deflationary pressures directly and indirectly, by enhancing the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies. Monetary policy can help in some areas; however, supportive fiscal policies are likely to be needed to prevent a deflationary episode becoming entrenched. Monetary policy measures include operating in a broad range of financial markets to relieve credit rationing, and to lower risk spreads and term premiums. Finally, to reinforce long-run inflation expectations, central bank communications should emphasize the commitment to return inflation to objectives with all due speed.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jörg Decressin & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Gauging Risks for Deflation," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/001, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfspn:2009/001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. de Carvalho Filho Irineu E, 2011. "28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-46, July.
    2. Charles Freedman & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir, 2010. "Policies to Rebalance the Global Economy After the Financial Crisis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 215-252, March.
    3. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "Mangelnde "Europäisierung" der nationalen Konjunkturzyklen als Risiko für den Euro-Raum," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 82(2), pages 125-138, February.
    4. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "Lacking "Europeanisation" of National Business Cycles as a Risk for the Euro Area," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 14(2), pages 91-104, June.
    5. Jha, Veena., 2009. "The effects of fiscal stimulus packages on employment," ILO Working Papers 994338973402676, International Labour Organization.
    6. Koppány, Krisztián, 2011. "Vezethet-e a válság deflációs spirálhoz?. Modellszámítások a likviditási csapdában lévő Egyesült Államokra [Could the crisis lead to a deflationary spiral?. Modelling the United States in a liquidi," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 197-228.
    7. repec:ilo:ilowps:433897 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho, 2010. "Inflation Targeting and the Crisis: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Working Papers 2010/045, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Sumru Altug & Bilin Neyapti & Mustafa Emin, 2012. "Institutions and Business Cycles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 347-366, December.
    10. Kevin Clinton & Marianne Johnson & Huigang Chen & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2009/214, International Monetary Fund.

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