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Exposure to Real Estate Losses: Evidence from the US Banks

Author

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  • Marcelo Pinheiro
  • Ms. Deniz O Igan

Abstract

We implement a three-step procedure to assess the extent of exposure to real estate in commercial banks. First, we demonstrate interest rates and income to be the major determinants of delinquency. Then, we adopt a stress testing approach to calculate the impact of any adverse changes in these determinants. This suggests that a 1.3 percentage point increase in mortgage interest rate leads to a 20 percent decrease in a typical bank's distance to default. Finally, we look at the cross-sectional differences and indentify the banks with rapid loan growth along with high cost-income ratio as the most vulnerable.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Pinheiro & Ms. Deniz O Igan, 2009. "Exposure to Real Estate Losses: Evidence from the US Banks," IMF Working Papers 2009/079, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/079
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "France: Financial Sector Assessment Program—Technical Note on Housing Prices and Financial Stability," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/184, International Monetary Fund.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Côte d’Ivoire: Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Progress Report of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/184, International Monetary Fund.

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