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Exposure to Real Estate in Bank Portfolios

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  • Deniz Igan
  • Marcelo Pinheiro

Abstract

We implement a three-step procedure to assess the extent of exposure to real estate in commercial banks. First, we investigate the determinants of delinquency on real estate loans. We find the changes in interest rates and income to be the major determinants of aggregate delinquency rate. In the second step, we adopt a stress testing approach to calculate the potential impact on banks' position of any adverse changes in these determinants. These calculations suggest that a 1.3 percentage point increase in mortgage interest rate leads to a 20% decrease in a typical bank's distance to default. Finally, we look at the cross-sectional differences to identify the most vulnerable banks. Banks with rapid loan growth along with high cost-income ratio appear to be the most likely to experience a deterioration in their soundness.

Suggested Citation

  • Deniz Igan & Marcelo Pinheiro, 2010. "Exposure to Real Estate in Bank Portfolios," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 47-74, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjerxx:v:32:y:2010:i:1:p:47-74
    DOI: 10.1080/10835547.2010.12091268
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    1. Crowe, Christopher & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Rabanal, Pau, 2013. "How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 300-319.
    2. Mbarek Lassaâd & Mezzez Hmaied Dorra, 2012. "Stock Market Assessment of Bank Risk: Evidence from the Maghreb Region," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, August.
    3. Antonio Miguel Martins & Ana Paula Serra & Francisco Vitorino Martins & Simon Stevenson, 2019. "Residential Property Loans and Bank Performance during Property Price Booms: Evidence from Europe," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(1), pages 247-295, May.
    4. Hany Guirguis & Glenn R. Mueller & Joshua Harris & Andrew G. Mueller, 2017. "Did Increased Large Bank Concentration of US Mortgage Loan Originations Explain Rising Originator Profits?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(3), pages 325-348.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Namibia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/277, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Lucia Gibilaro & Gianluca Mattarocci, 2016. "Are Real Estate Banks More Affected by Real Estate Market Dynamics?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(2), pages 151-170.
    7. Lassaâd Mbarek & Dorra Mezzez Hmaied, 2012. "Stock Market Assessment of Bank Risk: Evidence from the Maghreb Region," Working Papers 679, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    8. William F. Bassett & Simon Gilchrist & Gretchen C. Weinbach & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Improving Our Ability to Monitor Bank Lending," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, pages 149-161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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