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Commodity Price Volatility, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Convergence: What is Ahead for Inflation in Emerging Europe?

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  • Ms. Edda Zoli

Abstract

This paper assesses the role of international commodity prices, cyclical fluctuations, and convergence in driving inflation in 18 European emerging economies. Country specific VARs and panel estimates indicate that international commodity price shocks have a significant impact on domestic inflation, but the inflation response is asymmetric for positive and negative shocks. Cyclical fluctuations explain a relative small share of inflation variability, and the inflation response is asymmetric during upturns and downturns. Price convergence is estimated to add nearly 3 percentage points to headline inflation, for the average country whose price level is about 50 percent relative to the EU-15 average.

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  • Ms. Edda Zoli, 2009. "Commodity Price Volatility, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Convergence: What is Ahead for Inflation in Emerging Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2009/041, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/041
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    Cited by:

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    2. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Mishra, Saurabh & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-96.
    3. Sherine Al-Shawarby & Hoda Selim, 2013. "Are International Food Price Spikes the Source of Egypt’s High Inflation?," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Marga Peeters & Nidal Sabri & Wassim Shahin (ed.), Financial Integration, chapter 0, pages 61-83, Springer.
    4. Moncarz, Pedro & Barone, Sergio & Descalzi, Ricardo, 2018. "Shocks to the international prices of agricultural commodities and the effects on welfare and poverty. A simulation of the ex ante long-run effects for Uruguay," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 136-155.
    5. Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Onorante, Luca, 2010. "Food price pass-through in the euro area The role of asymmetries and non-linearities," Working Paper Series 1168, European Central Bank.
    6. Égert, Balázs, 2011. "Catching-up and inflation in Europe: Balassa-Samuelson, Engel's Law and other culprits," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 208-229, June.
    7. Pedro Moncarz & Sergio Barone & Germán Calfat & Ricardo Descalzi, 2017. "Poverty Impacts of Changes in the International Prices of Agricultural Commodities: Recent Evidence for Argentina (An Ex-Ante Analysis)," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 375-395, March.
    8. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Njoupouognigni Moussa & Ndambendia Houdou, 2021. "Commodity Price Changes and Domestic Inflation in the CEMAC Zone: Evidence from Panel Cointegration," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(5), pages 1-93, May.
    10. Ondřej Bednář & Andrea Čečrdlová & Božena Kadeřábková & Pavel Řežábek, 2022. "Energy Prices Impact on Inflationary Spiral," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-25, May.
    11. Gelos, Gaston & Ustyugova, Yulia, 2017. "Inflation responses to commodity price shocks – How and why do countries differ?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 28-47.
    12. Moncarz, Pedro & Barone, Sergio & Calfat, Germán & Descalzi, Ricardo, 2014. "Poverty impacts of changes in the price of agricultural commodities: recent evidence for Argentina," IOB Working Papers 2014.09, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).
    13. Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Income convergence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe : does the sun always rise in the East," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Mar 2010.

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