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Are international food price spikes the source of Egypt's high inflation ?

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  • Al-Shawarby, Sherine
  • Selim, Hoda

Abstract

This paper examines whether domestic inflation spikes in Egypt during 2001-2011 were primarily the result of external food price shocks. To estimate the pass-through of international food price inflation to domestic price inflation, two different methodologies are used: a two-step regression model estimates the pass-through in the long run, and a vector autoregression model provides the short-run estimates. The empirical evidence confirms that pass-through is high in the short term, but not in the long run. More precisely, the results show that (i) long-run pass-through to domestic food inflation is relatively low, lying between 13 and 16 percent, while the long-term spill-over from domestic food inflation to core inflation is moderate, lying around 60 percent; (ii) in the short term, pass-through is relatively high, estimated around 29 percent after 6 months and around two-thirds after a year, but the spill-over effect to core inflation is limited; (iii) international food price shocks explain only a small portion of domestic inflation shocks in both the short and long terms; and (iv) international price inflation has asymmetric effects on domestic prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Al-Shawarby, Sherine & Selim, Hoda, 2012. "Are international food price spikes the source of Egypt's high inflation ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6177, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6177
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Amr Hosny, 2013. "Inflation In Egypt: Internal Or External Driven?," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-15.
    2. Ibrahim AWAD, 2013. "Challenges For Adopting Inflation Targeting Regime In Egypt," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 11, pages 59-81, June.
    3. Imed Medhioub & Mustapha Chaffai, 2021. "Herding behaviour theory and oil price dispersion: a sectoral analysis of the Gulf Cooperation Council stock market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(1), pages 43-50, February.
    4. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2020. "Should a central bank react to food inflation? Evidence from an estimated model for Chile," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 221-234.
    5. Mounir El-Karimi & Ahmed El-Ghini, 2020. "The Transmission of Global Commodity Prices to Consumer Prices in a Commodity Import-Dependent Country: Evidence from Morocco," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67(1), pages 15-32, March.
    6. Mora Barrenechea, Mauricio, 2020. "Time-varying effects of commodities prices in the Bolivian economy," MPRA Paper 104706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Munene, Olive, 2015. "Second Round Effects And Pass-Through Of Food Prices To Inflation In Kenya," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(3), pages 1-13, July.

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    Keywords

    Food&Beverage Industry; Markets and Market Access; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Emerging Markets; Access to Markets;
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