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Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks: How and Why Do Countries Differ?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Gaston Gelos
  • Ms. Yulia Ustyugova

Abstract

This paper relates the inflationary impact of commodity price shocks across countries to a broad range of structural characteristics and policy frameworks over the period 2001-2010, using several approaches. The analysis suggests that economies with higher food shares in CPI baskets, fuel intensities, and pre-existing inflation levels were more prone to experience sustained inflationary effects from commodity price shocks. Countries with more independent central banks and higher governance scores seem to have contained the impact of these shocks better. The effect of the presence of inflation targeting regimes, however, appears very modest and not evident during the 2008 food price shock.The evidence suggests that trade openness, financial development, dollarization, and labor market flexibility do not significantly influence the way in which domestic inflation responds to international commodity price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Gaston Gelos & Ms. Yulia Ustyugova, 2012. "Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks: How and Why Do Countries Differ?," IMF Working Papers 2012/225, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/225
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; headline inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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