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Looking Beyond the Fiscal: Do Oil Funds Bring Macroeconomic Stability?

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  • Mr. Ghiath Shabsigh
  • Mr. Nadeem Ilahi

Abstract

Oil funds have become increasingly popular in oil exporting countries during the recent surge in oil prices. However, the literature on the contribution is small, tends to focus narrowly on their fiscal benefits, and concludes that they are redundant of such funds-in other words, that well designed fiscal management and policy are adequate substitutes for oil funds. This paper argues that a broader focus is needed in judging the effectiveness of such funds. We test whether oil funds help reduce macroeconomic volatility. The econometric estimation results from a 30-year panel data set of 15 countries with and without oil funds suggest that oil funds are associated with reduced volatility of broad money and prices and lower inflation. However, there is a statistically weak negative association between the presence of an oil fund and volatility of the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ghiath Shabsigh & Mr. Nadeem Ilahi, 2007. "Looking Beyond the Fiscal: Do Oil Funds Bring Macroeconomic Stability?," IMF Working Papers 2007/096, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/096
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    1. Clemens, Marius & Fuhrmann, Wilfried, 2008. "Rohstoffbasierte Staatsfonds: Theorie und Empirie [Resource-based sovereign wealth funds]," MPRA Paper 16933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Ganbayar, Javkhlan, 2022. "An econometric study on the classification and effectiveness of natural resource funds," MPRA Paper 114392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Pablo Lopez Murphy & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Rolando Ossowski, 2010. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2010/251, International Monetary Fund.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Constraints on the Design and Implementation of Monetary Policy in Oil Economies: The Case of Venezuela," IMF Working Papers 2008/142, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2013. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 5, pages 117-173, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Do sovereign wealth funds dampen the negative effects of commodity price volatility?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 18-27.
    7. Wee Chian Koh, 2017. "Fiscal Policy in Oil-exporting Countries: The Roles of Oil Funds and Institutional Quality," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 567-590, August.
    8. Dina Azhgaliyeva, 2013. "What Makes Oil Revenue Funds Effective," International Conference on Energy, Regional Integration and Socio-economic Development 6023, EcoMod.
    9. Olivia S. Mitchell & John Piggott & Cagri Kumru, 2008. "Managing Public Investment Funds: Best Practices and New Challenges," NBER Working Papers 14078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Javkhlan Ganbayar, 2022. "Natural Resource Funds: Their Objectives and Effectiveness," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-20, September.
    11. repec:ocp:ppaper:pb-1523 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2011. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resources Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean ," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 609, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Çiçekçi, Cumhur & Gaygısız, Esma, 2023. "Procyclicality of fiscal policy in oil-rich countries: Roles of resource funds and institutional quality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    14. Tsani, Stella, 2013. "Natural resources, governance and institutional quality: The role of resource funds," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-195.
    15. Stela Cani, 2009. "Resource Abundance, Mineral Funds and Institutional Quality," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2009-04, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    16. Yelena, Kalyuzhnova, 2011. "The National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK): From accumulation to stress-test to global future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6650-6657, October.
    17. Naotaka Sugawara, 2014. "From Volatility to Stability in Expenditure: Stabilization Funds in Resource-Rich Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/043, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Jiří Sýkora, 2013. "Oil in Timor-Leste: A Ticket to Prosperity?," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(3), pages 68-85.
    19. Jean-Luc Hélis & Ms. Teresa Daban Sanchez, 2010. "A Public Financial Management Framework for Resources-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/072, International Monetary Fund.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Islamic Republic of Iran: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/285, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Institutions: Lessons from World Experience for MENA Countries," Working Papers 1311, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    22. Wee Chian Koh, 2017. "Oil price shocks and macroeconomic adjustments in oil-exporting countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 187-210, April.
    23. World Bank, 2012. "Reshaping Economic Geography of East Africa : From Regional to Global Integration (Vol. 1 of 2)," World Bank Publications - Reports 11930, The World Bank Group.
    24. Tsani, Stella, 2015. "On the relationship between resource funds, governance and institutions: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 94-111.

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