IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/erg/wpaper/1106.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Dampen the Negative Effects of Commodity Price Volatility?

Author

Listed:
  • Kamiar Mohaddes

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Mehdi Raissi

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of commodity terms of trade (CToT) volatility on economic growth (and its sources) in a sample of 69 commodity-dependent countries, and assesses the role of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) and quality of institutions in their long-term growth performance. Using annual data over the period 1981–2014, we employ the Cross-Sectionally augmented Autoregressive Distributive Lag (CS-ARDL) methodology for estimation to account for cross-country heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and feedback effects. We find that while CToT volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth (operating through lower accumulation of physical capital and lower TFP), the average impact is dampened if a country has a SWF and better institutional quality (hence a more stable government expenditure).

Suggested Citation

  • Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2017. "Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Dampen the Negative Effects of Commodity Price Volatility?," Working Papers 1106, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Aug 2000.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/1106.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://bit.ly/2sv1eGO
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    2. Catão, Luis A.V. & Fostel, Ana & Kapur, Sandeep, 2009. "Persistent gaps and default traps," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 271-284, July.
    3. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2013. "Oil exports and the Iranian economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 221-237.
    4. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Gylfi Zoega, 2006. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: The Role of Investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(8), pages 1091-1115, August.
    5. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "Long-Run Effects in Large Heterogeneous Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectionally Correlated Errors," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of man Ullah, volume 36, pages 85-135, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2017. "Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 135-150, March.
    7. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2017. "Oil prices and the global economy: Is it different this time around?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 315-325.
    8. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Poelhekke, Steven, 2010. "The pungent smell of "red herrings": Subsoil assets, rents, volatility and the resource curse," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 44-55, July.
    9. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2019. "The US oil supply revolution and the global economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1515-1546, November.
    10. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    11. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, T., 2011. "Panels with non-stationary multifactor error structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 326-348, February.
    12. Naotaka Sugawara, 2014. "From Volatility to Stability in Expenditure: Stabilization Funds in Resource-Rich Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/043, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Bahal, Girish & Raissi, Mehdi & Tulin, Volodymyr, 2018. "Crowding-out or crowding-in? Public and private investment in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 323-333.
    14. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    15. Amany El-Anshasy & Kamiar Mohaddes & Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2015. "Oil, Volatility and Institutions: Cross-Country Evidence from Major Oil Producers," Working Papers EPRG 1513, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    16. Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "An Empirical Growth Model For Major Oil Exporters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 1-21, January.
    17. Asli Demeirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine (ed.), 0. "Finance and Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 17119.
    18. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    19. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2013. "Debt, inflation and growth robust estimation of long-run effects in dynamic panel data models," Globalization Institute Working Papers 162, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    20. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634, April.
    21. Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2013. "One Hundred Years of Oil Income and the Iranian Economy: A Curse or a Blessing?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4118, CESifo.
    22. Tiago V. De V. Cavalcanti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 857-873, September.
    23. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2016. "Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy: A counterfactual analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 382-399.
    24. Cavalcanti, Tiago V. de V. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2011. "Growth, development and natural resources: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 305-318.
    25. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Commodity Terms of Trade: The History of Booms and Busts," IMF Working Papers 2009/205, International Monetary Fund.
    26. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2015. "Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1089-1117, December.
    27. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    28. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
    29. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
    30. Rick Van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2010. "The Pungent Smell of “Red Herrings’: Subsoil assets, rents, volatility and the resource curse," OxCarre Working Papers 033, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    31. Ms. Nese Erbil, 2011. "Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil-Producing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2011/171, International Monetary Fund.
    32. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    33. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    34. Michael Alexeev & Robert Conrad, 2009. "The Elusive Curse of Oil," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 586-598, August.
    35. Céspedes, Luis Felipe & Velasco, Andrés, 2014. "Was this time different?: Fiscal policy in commodity republics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 92-106.
    36. Blattman, Christopher & Hwang, Jason & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2007. "Winners and losers in the commodity lottery: The impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the Periphery 1870-1939," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 156-179, January.
    37. Tiago de. V. Cavalcanti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2011. "Does oil abundance harm growth?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(12), pages 1181-1184.
    38. Mr. Ghiath Shabsigh & Mr. Nadeem Ilahi, 2007. "Looking Beyond the Fiscal: Do Oil Funds Bring Macroeconomic Stability?," IMF Working Papers 2007/096, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Michaelides, Alexander & Coutinho, Leonor & Georgiou, Dimitrios & Heracleous, Maria & Tsani, Stella, 2013. "Limiting Fiscal Procyclicality: Evidence from Resource-Rich Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
    41. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2010/028, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," IMF Working Papers 2012/012, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Tiago V. De V. Cavalcanti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 857-873, September.
    3. Amany El-Anshasy & Kamiar Mohaddes & Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2015. "Oil, Volatility and Institutions: Cross-Country Evidence from Major Oil Producers," Working Papers EPRG 1513, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    4. Jarrett, Uchechukwu & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Mohtadi, Hamid, 2019. "Oil price volatility, financial institutions and economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 131-144.
    5. Burney, Nadeem A. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Alawadhi, Ahmad & Al-Musallam, Marwa, 2018. "The dynamics and determinants of Kuwait's long-run economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 289-304.
    6. Kaznacheev, Peter, 2013. "Resource Rents and Economic Growth: Economic and institutional development in countries with a high share of income from the sale of natural resources. Analysis and recommendations based on internatio," EconStor Research Reports 121950, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2013. "One Hundred Years of Oil Income and the Iranian Economy: A Curse or a Blessing?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4118, CESifo.
    8. Cavalcanti, Tiago V. de V. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2011. "Growth, development and natural resources: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 305-318.
    9. Novelli, Giacomo, 2022. "Energy Dependency and Long-Run Growth," FEEM Working Papers 329650, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    10. Giacomo Novelli, 2022. "Energy Dependency and Long-Run Growth," Working Papers 2022.42, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    11. Niknamian, Sorush, 2019. "Resource–Economic Growth Nexus, Role of Governance, Financial Development, Globalisation and War: Dynamic Approach," OSF Preprints akhsr, Center for Open Science.
    12. Çiçekçi, Cumhur & Gaygısız, Esma, 2023. "Procyclicality of fiscal policy in oil-rich countries: Roles of resource funds and institutional quality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    13. Bonizzi, Bruno, 2017. "Institutional investors’ allocation to emerging markets: A panel approach to asset demand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 47-64.
    14. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2019. "The US oil supply revolution and the global economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1515-1546, November.
    15. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2017. "Oil prices and the global economy: Is it different this time around?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 315-325.
    16. Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Chen, Ting-Cih & Lin, Shu-Chin, 2020. "Does oil drive income inequality? New panel evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 137-152.
    17. Chakraborty, Saptorshee Kanto & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2020. "Energy intensity and green energy innovation: Checking heterogeneous country effects in the OECD," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 328-343.
    18. Leong, W. & Mohaddes, K., 2011. "Institutions and the Volatility Curse," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1145, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    19. Moradbeigi, Maryam & Law, Siong Hook, 2017. "The role of financial development in the oil-growth nexus," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 164-172.
    20. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Clark, Jeremy, 2017. "The evolution of the natural resource curse thesis: A critical literature survey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-134.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherine Ghoneim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erfaceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.