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How Might a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances Affect Global Wealth?

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  • Mr. Francis E. Warnock

Abstract

Partly reflecting structural advantages such a liquidity and strong investor protection, foreigners have built up extremely large positions in U.S. (as well as other dollar-denominated) financial assets. This paper describes the impact on global wealth of an unanticipated shock to U.S. financial markets. For every 10 percent decline in the dollar, U.S. equity markets, and U.S. bond markets, total wealth losses to foreigners could amount to about 5 percentage points of foreign GDP. Four stylized facts emerge: (i) foreign countries, particularly emerging markets, are more exposed to U.S. bonds than U.S. equities; (ii) U.S. exposure has increased for most countries; (iii) on average, U.S. asset holdings of developed countries and emerging markets (scaled by GDP) are very similar; and (iv) based on their reserve positions, wealth losses of emerging market governments could, on average, amount to about 2¾ percentage points of their GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "How Might a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances Affect Global Wealth?," IMF Working Papers 2006/170, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/170
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bong‐Chan Kho & René M. Stulz & Francis E. Warnock, 2009. "Financial Globalization, Governance, and the Evolution of the Home Bias," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 597-635, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 518-540, March.
    2. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "Europe and global imbalances [‘New rates for new weights’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 22(51), pages 520-573.
    3. Hyun-Hoon Lee & Donghyun Park, 2013. "The Financial Role Of East Asian Countries In Global Imbalances: An Econometric Assessment Of Developments After The Global Financial Crisis," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 1-29.
    4. Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2010. "Asset Prices, News Shocks and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 8080, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Mr. Francesco Strobbe, 2010. "Bilateral Financial Linkages and Global Imbalances: a View on The Eve of the Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2010/257, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "What explains global exchange rate movements during the financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1390-1407, December.
    7. Marcel Fratzscher, 2008. "US shocks and global exchange rate configurations [‘Micro effects of macro announcements: Real-time price discovery in foreign exchange’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(54), pages 364-409.
    8. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & Cédric Tille, 2006. "Borrowing without debt? Understanding the U.S. international investment position," Staff Reports 271, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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