IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2006-170.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Might a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances Affect Global Wealth?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Francis E. Warnock

Abstract

Partly reflecting structural advantages such a liquidity and strong investor protection, foreigners have built up extremely large positions in U.S. (as well as other dollar-denominated) financial assets. This paper describes the impact on global wealth of an unanticipated shock to U.S. financial markets. For every 10 percent decline in the dollar, U.S. equity markets, and U.S. bond markets, total wealth losses to foreigners could amount to about 5 percentage points of foreign GDP. Four stylized facts emerge: (i) foreign countries, particularly emerging markets, are more exposed to U.S. bonds than U.S. equities; (ii) U.S. exposure has increased for most countries; (iii) on average, U.S. asset holdings of developed countries and emerging markets (scaled by GDP) are very similar; and (iv) based on their reserve positions, wealth losses of emerging market governments could, on average, amount to about 2¾ percentage points of their GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "How Might a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances Affect Global Wealth?," IMF Working Papers 2006/170, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/170
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=19357
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bong‐Chan Kho & René M. Stulz & Francis E. Warnock, 2009. "Financial Globalization, Governance, and the Evolution of the Home Bias," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 597-635, May.
    2. Richard H. Clarida, 2007. "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number clar06-2.
    3. Gagnon, Joseph E., 2009. "Currency crashes and bond yields in industrial countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 161-181, February.
    4. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2005. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-38, January.
    5. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp103, IIIS.
    6. Tesar, Linda L. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1995. "Home bias and high turnover," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 467-492, August.
    7. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E., 2007. "Foreign participation in local currency bond markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 291-304.
    8. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "Global Bond Portfolios and EMU," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    9. Cédric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
    10. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2005. "The International Equity Holdings of Euro Area Investors," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp104, IIIS.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 518-540, March.
    2. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "Europe and global imbalances [‘New rates for new weights’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 22(51), pages 520-573.
    3. Hyun-Hoon Lee & Donghyun Park, 2013. "The Financial Role Of East Asian Countries In Global Imbalances: An Econometric Assessment Of Developments After The Global Financial Crisis," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 1-29.
    4. Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2010. "Asset Prices, News Shocks and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 8080, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Mr. Francesco Strobbe, 2010. "Bilateral Financial Linkages and Global Imbalances: a View on The Eve of the Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2010/257, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "What explains global exchange rate movements during the financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1390-1407, December.
    7. Marcel Fratzscher, 2008. "US shocks and global exchange rate configurations [‘Micro effects of macro announcements: Real-time price discovery in foreign exchange’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(54), pages 364-409.
    8. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & Cédric Tille, 2006. "Borrowing without debt? Understanding the U.S. international investment position," Staff Reports 271, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francis E. Warnock, 2008. "The Impact of a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances on Global Wealth," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(3), pages 345-379, November.
    2. Fidora, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Thimann, Christian, 2007. "Home bias in global bond and equity markets: The role of real exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 631-655, June.
    3. Forbes, Kristin J., 2010. "Why do foreigners invest in the United States?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 3-21, January.
    4. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "Global Bond Portfolios and EMU," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    5. Giofré, Maela, 2014. "Domestic investor protection and foreign portfolio investment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 355-371.
    6. Okawa, Yohei & van Wincoop, Eric, 2012. "Gravity in International Finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 205-215.
    7. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2007. "The Stability of Large External Imbalances: The Role of Returns Differentials," NBER Working Papers 13074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky, 2012. "Government Bonds and their Investors: What Are the Facts and Do they Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2012/158, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2016. "What can wavelets unveil about the vulnerabilities of monetary integration? A tale of Eurozone stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 981-996.
    10. Wallmeier, Martin & Iseli, Christoph, 2022. "Home bias and expected returns: A structural approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Park, Donghyun & Taniguchi, Kiyoshi & Tian, Shu, 2019. "Determinants of foreign and domestic investment bias in global bond markets: Some empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 287-303.
    12. Gu, Yiwen (Jenny) & Filatotchev, Igor & Greg Bell, R. & Rasheed, Abdul A., 2019. "Liability of foreignness in capital markets: Institutional distance and the cost of debt," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 142-160.
    13. Giofré, Maela, 2017. "Financial education, investor protection and international portfolio diversification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 111-139.
    14. Balli Faruk & Louis Rosmy J & Osman Mohamed A, 2009. "International Portfolio Inflows to GCC Markets: Are There Any General Patterns?," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 45-65, September.
    15. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "European Financial Linkages: A New Look At Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 2010/295, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Mishra, Anil V., 2016. "Foreign bias in Australian-domiciled mutual fund holdings," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 101-123.
    17. Miletkov, Mihail K. & Poulsen, Annette B. & Babajide Wintoki, M., 2014. "The role of corporate board structure in attracting foreign investors," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 143-157.
    18. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2009. "Where did all the borrowing go? A forensic analysis of the U.S. external position," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-199, June.
    19. Baele, Lieven & Pungulescu, Crina & Ter Horst, Jenke, 2007. "Model uncertainty, financial market integration and the home bias puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 606-630, June.
    20. Faruqee, Hamid & Laxton, Douglas & Muir, Dirk & Pesenti, Paolo, 2008. "Would protectionism defuse global imbalances and spur economic activity? A scenario analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2651-2689, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.