IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecnote/v37y2008i3p345-379.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances on Global Wealth

Author

Listed:
  • Francis E. Warnock

Abstract

Partly reflecting structural advantages such as liquidity and strong investor protection, foreigners have built up extremely large positions in US (as well as other dollar‐denominated) financial assets. This paper describes the impact on global wealth of an unanticipated shock to US financial markets. For every 10 per cent decline in the dollar, US equity markets, and US bond markets, total wealth losses to foreigners could amount to about 5 percentage points of foreign GDP. Four stylized facts emerge: (i) foreign countries, particularly emerging markets, are more exposed to US bonds than to US equities; (ii) over time US exposure has increased for most countries; (iii) on average, US asset holdings of developed countries and emerging markets (scaled by GDP) are very similar; and (iv) based on their reserves position alone, wealth losses of emerging market governments could on average amount to about 2¾ percentage points of their GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Francis E. Warnock, 2008. "The Impact of a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances on Global Wealth," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(3), pages 345-379, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:37:y:2008:i:3:p:345-379
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0300.2008.00201.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0300.2008.00201.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-0300.2008.00201.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Local Currency Bond Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1-7.
    2. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "Global Bond Portfolios and EMU," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    3. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E., 2007. "Foreign participation in local currency bond markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 291-304.
    4. Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 283-294, July.
    5. Warnock, Francis E., 2002. "Home bias and high turnover reconsidered," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 795-805, November.
    6. Cédric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
    7. Richard H. Clarida, 2007. "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number clar06-2, June.
    8. Tesar, Linda L. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1995. "Home bias and high turnover," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 467-492, August.
    9. Forbes, Kristin J., 2010. "Why do foreigners invest in the United States?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 3-21, January.
    10. Brooks, Robin & Del Negro, Marco, 2004. "The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 659-680, December.
    11. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2009. "Are valuation effects desirable from a global perspective?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 170-180, July.
    12. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & Cédric Tille, 2005. "The income implications of rising U.S. international liabilities," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 11(Dec).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2009. "Are valuation effects desirable from a global perspective?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 170-180, July.
    2. Mr. Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "How Might a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances Affect Global Wealth?," IMF Working Papers 2006/170, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Forbes, Kristin J., 2010. "Why do foreigners invest in the United States?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 3-21, January.
    4. Fidora, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Thimann, Christian, 2007. "Home bias in global bond and equity markets: The role of real exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 631-655, June.
    5. Michele Cavallo & Cedric Tille, 2006. "Could capital gains smooth a current account rebalancing?," 2006 Meeting Papers 252, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2009. "The evolution of the Sino-American Co-dependency: modelling a regime switch in a growth setting," Department of Economics Working Papers 0905, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    7. Bose, Udichibarna & MacDonald, Ronald & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2015. "Education and the local equity bias around the world," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 65-88.
    8. Giofré, Maela, 2021. "Stock exchange consolidation and cross-border investment: An empirical assessment," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    9. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E. & Warnock, Veronica Cacdac, 2018. "Currency matters: Analyzing international bond portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 376-388.
    10. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Kollmann, Robert & Martin, Philippe, 2010. "International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 100-112, January.
    11. Sorensen, Bent E. & Wu, Yi-Tsung & Yosha, Oved & Zhu, Yu, 2007. "Home bias and international risk sharing: Twin puzzles separated at birth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 587-605, June.
    12. Bose, Udichibarna & MacDonald, Ronald & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2014. "The role of education in equity portfolios during the recent financial crisis," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-26, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris, 2013. "Investing at home and abroad: Different costs, different people?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2069-2086.
    14. Balli Faruk & Louis Rosmy J & Osman Mohamed A, 2009. "International Portfolio Inflows to GCC Markets: Are There Any General Patterns?," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 45-65, September.
    15. Paul Hallwood & Ronald MacDonald, 2014. "Picking The Right Budget Constraint For Scotland," Working Papers 2014_18, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    16. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2007. "The Stability of Large External Imbalances: The Role of Returns Differentials," NBER Working Papers 13074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky, 2012. "Government Bonds and their Investors: What Are the Facts and Do they Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2012/158, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Bose, Udichibarna & MacDonald, Ronald & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2015. "Education and the local equity bias around the world," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-76, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 283-294, July.
    20. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2010. "Country portfolio dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1325-1342, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:37:y:2008:i:3:p:345-379. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0391-5026 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.