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Extracting Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility from Market Prices - Estonia Focus

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  • Yu-Fu Chen
  • Michael Funke
  • Kadri Männasoo

Abstract

Banking reform has proved to be one of the most problematic elements of economic transition in central and eastern Europe. Therefore the paper considers the development of the Estonian banking sector and derives individual banks´ fragility scores during transition. To this end we use option-based tools and equity prices to estimate distance-to-default measures of banks´ distress probabilities. Overall, the results suggest that market indicators are moderately useful for anticipating future financial distress and rating changes in transition economies. The implication for an effective supervisory framework is to use a plurality of risk scores when assessing bank vulnerability.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo, 2005. "Extracting Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility from Market Prices - Estonia Focus," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 185, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    • Handle: RePEc:dun:dpaper:185
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    Cited by:

    1. Boris Blagov, 2018. "Financial crises and time-varying risk premia in a small open economy: a Markov-switching DSGE model for Estonia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1017-1060, May.
    2. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2010. "The Transitional Dynamics Of Fiscal Policy In Small Open Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 1-28, February.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/179 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kadri Männasoo & Heili Hein, 2017. "Are R&D companies credit-constrained? Credit frictions during and post-crisis," TUT Economic Research Series 29, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    6. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2010. "Deriving the term structure of banking crisis risk with a compound option approach: The case of Kazakhstan," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Kadri Männasoo & Heili Hein, 2017. "Capital investments and financing structure: Are R&D companies different?," TUT Economic Research Series 26, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking; Financial Stability; Bank Fragility; Options; Estonia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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