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How to Evaluate GDP-Linked Warrants: Price and Repayment Capacity

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  • Mr. Ken Miyajima

Abstract

Following a brief review of the recent history of GDP-linked instruments, this paper proposes a set of tools to examine the quantitative properties of GDP-linked warrants. It argues that trigger conditions should be clearly identifiable and payment amounts easily calculable. Based on a design that includes these features and historical data for the main EMBI countries, the paper provides an assessment of the issuer's capacity to service GDP-linked warrants, comparing payments with tax revenues stemming from contemporaneous growth. The price of the GDP-linked warrants are then estimated from the point of view of both domestic and foreign investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ken Miyajima, 2006. "How to Evaluate GDP-Linked Warrants: Price and Repayment Capacity," IMF Working Papers 2006/085, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/085
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefano G. Athanasoulis & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1031-1054, September.
    2. Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Paolo Mauro, 2002. "Reviving the Case for GDP-Indexed Bonds," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2002/010, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Chamon, Marcos & Mauro, Paolo, 2006. "Pricing growth-indexed bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3349-3366, December.
    4. Athanasoulis, Stefano G. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2000. "Growth uncertainty and risksharing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 477-505, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Consiglio, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2018. "Pricing and hedging GDP-linked bonds in incomplete markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 137-155.
    2. John H. Cochrane, 2015. "A New Structure for U.S. Federal Debt," Economics Working Papers 15108, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    3. Diaw, Abdou & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath & Lahsasna, Ahcene, 2014. "Public Sector Funding and Debt Management: A Case for GDP-Linked Ṣukūk," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 22, pages 185-216.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 2015. "Sovereign Default, Debt Restructuring, and Recovery Rates: Was the Argentinean “Haircut” Excessive?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 839-867, November.
    5. Harris Ntantanis & Lawrence Pohlman, 2020. "Market implied GDP," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(7), pages 636-646, December.
    6. Diaw, Abdou & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath & Lahsasna, Ahcene, 2011. "Public Sector Funding and Debt Management: A Case for GDP-Linked Sukuk," MPRA Paper 46008, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    7. Joel Bowman & Philip Naylor, 2016. "GDP-linked Bonds," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 61-68, September.
    8. Stavros A. Zenios, 2013. "The Cyprus Debt: Perfect Crisis and a Way Forward," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 7(1), pages 3-45, June.
    9. Sebastian Edwards, 2015. "Sovereign Default, Debt Restructuring, and Recovery Rates: Was the Argentinean “Haircut” Excessive?," NBER Working Papers 20964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay, 2012. "Modes of Asian financial integration: financing infrastructure," Chapters, in: Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay & Masahiro Kawai & Rajat M. Nag (ed.), Infrastructure for Asian Connectivity, chapter 10, pages 349-401, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Jean-Marc Fournier & Jakob Lehr, 2018. "Issuing GDP-linked bonds: Supply and demand can match," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1500, OECD Publishing.
    12. Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay, 2010. "Financing Asia’s Infrastructure : Modes of Development and Integration of Asian Financial Markets," Finance Working Papers 21883, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    13. Diana Bonfim & David Pereira, 2018. "GDP-linked bonds: design, effects, and way forward," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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