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Optimal external debt and default

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  • Guimaraes, Bernardo

Abstract

This paper analyses whether sovereign default episodes can be seen as contingencies of optimal international lending contracts. The model considers a small open economy with capital accumulation and without commitment to repay debt. Taking first order approximations of Bellman equations, I derive analytical expressions for the equilibrium level of debt and the optimal debt contract. In this environment, debt relief generated by reasonable fluctuations in productivity is an order of magnitude below that generated by shocks to world interest rates. Debt relief prescribed by the model following the interest rate hikes of 1980-81 accounts for a substantial part of the debt forgiveness obtained by the main Latin American countries through the Brady agreements.

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  • Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2008. "Optimal external debt and default," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3604, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:3604
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    Cited by:

    1. Nathan Foley‐Fisher & Bernardo Guimaraes, 2013. "U.S. Real Interest Rates and Default Risk in Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 967-975, August.
    2. Boz, Emine, 2011. "Sovereign default, private sector creditors, and the IFIs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 70-82, January.
    3. Sayantan Ghosal & Marcus Miller, 2019. "Introduction to the special issue on sovereign debt restructuring," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 309-319.
    4. Joy, Mark, 2012. "Sovereign default and macroeconomic tipping points," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Ahmad Danu Prasetyo & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2013. "Improving the Government Debt Market Quality by Determining the Optimal Structure of Government Debt Portfolio," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2012-038, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign debt; default; capital flows; optimal contract; world interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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