IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rba/rbabul/sep2016-08.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

GDP-linked Bonds

Author

Listed:
  • Joel Bowman

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Philip Naylor

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

A GDP-linked bond is a debt security with repayments that are linked to the issuing country’s GDP. These securities have recently attracted some attention, including within the Group of Twenty (G20), in the context of discussions about possible ways to improve the resilience of the international financial system. In view of this, we discuss the potential benefits and challenges associated with issuing GDP-linked bonds and estimate a range of plausible risk premiums using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Our analysis suggests that there is significant uncertainty about how these instruments would be priced and, therefore, the borrowing costs that would be faced by governments. Given that borrowing costs play a crucial role in determining what type of debt governments choose to issue, further work could investigate how private market participants are likely to price GDP-linked bonds in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Joel Bowman & Philip Naylor, 2016. "GDP-linked Bonds," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 61-68, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbabul:sep2016-08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2016/sep/pdf/rba-bulletin-2016-09-gdp-linked-bonds.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Barr & Oliver Bush & Alex Pienkowski, 2014. "GDP-linked Bonds and Sovereign Default," International Economic Association Series, in: Joseph E. Stiglitz & Daniel Heymann (ed.), Life After Debt, chapter 4, pages 246-275, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March.
    3. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
    4. Mr. Ken Miyajima, 2006. "How to Evaluate GDP-Linked Warrants: Price and Repayment Capacity," IMF Working Papers 2006/085, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Luca A Ricci & Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Alejo Costa, 2008. "Is There a Novelty Premium on New Financial Instruments? The Argentine Experience with GDP-Indexed Warrants," IMF Working Papers 2008/109, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jean-Marc Fournier & Jakob Lehr, 2018. "Issuing GDP-linked bonds: Supply and demand can match," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1500, OECD Publishing.
    2. Consiglio, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2018. "Pricing and hedging GDP-linked bonds in incomplete markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 137-155.
    3. THOMAS H. McCURDY & IEUAN G. MORGAN, 1992. "Single Beta Models and Currency Futures Prices," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 68(S1), pages 117-129, December.
    4. Matthias R. Fengler & Helmut Herwartz & Christian Werner, 2012. "A Dynamic Copula Approach to Recovering the Index Implied Volatility Skew," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 457-493, June.
    5. Mouabbi, Sarah & Renne, Jean-Paul & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2024. "Debt-stabilizing properties of GDP-linked securities: A macro-finance perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    6. Diaw, Abdou & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath & Lahsasna, Ahcene, 2011. "Public Sector Funding and Debt Management: A Case for GDP-Linked Sukuk," MPRA Paper 46008, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    7. Su, Yuli & Yip, Yewmun & Wong, Rickie W., 2002. "The impact of government intervention on stock returns: Evidence from Hong Kong," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 277-297.
    8. Michael Devaney & William Weber, 2005. "Efficiency, Scale Economies, and the Risk/Return Performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 301-317, November.
    9. Diaw, Abdou & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath & Lahsasna, Ahcene, 2014. "Public Sector Funding and Debt Management: A Case for GDP-Linked Ṣukūk," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 22, pages 185-216.
    10. Sebastian Edwards, 2015. "Sovereign Default, Debt Restructuring, and Recovery Rates: Was the Argentinean “Haircut” Excessive?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 839-867, November.
    11. Sebastian Edwards, 2015. "Sovereign Default, Debt Restructuring, and Recovery Rates: Was the Argentinean “Haircut” Excessive?," NBER Working Papers 20964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Harris Ntantanis & Lawrence Pohlman, 2020. "Market implied GDP," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(7), pages 636-646, December.
    13. Pina, Gonçalo, 2024. "State-contingent debt with lender risk aversion," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 180-189.
    14. Diana Bonfim & David Pereira, 2018. "GDP-linked bonds: design, effects, and way forward," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    15. Enrique Sentana, 1993. "The econometrics of the stock market II: asset pricing," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 421-444, September.
    16. Alex Ilek & Tanya Suchoy & Nir Klein, 2006. "Estimating the premium implicit in the yields of Treasury Bills," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 4(2), pages 53-83.
    17. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Abderrahim Taamouti & Roméo Tédongap, 2014. "Risk Premium, Variance Premium, and the Maturity Structure of Uncertainty," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 219-269.
    18. Barbara Fidanza & Ottorino Morresi, 2021. "Size and Value Anomalies in European Bank Stocks," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(12), pages 227-227, July.
    19. Li, Yuming, 1998. "Expected stock returns, risk premiums and volatilities of economic factors1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 69-97, June.
    20. Radosław Kurach, 2013. "Does Beta Explain Global Equity Market Volatility – Some Empirical Evidence," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 7(2), June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rba:rbabul:sep2016-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paula Drew (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbagvau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.