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The END: A New Indicator of Financial and Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Vulnerability

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau
  • Mr. Toni Gravelle

Abstract

This paper describes a corporate sector vulnerability indicator, the expected number of defaults (END), based on the joint occurrence of defaults among a number of firms and/or institutions. The END indicator is general enough to assess systemic risk in the corporate and financial sectors, as well as systemic sovereign risk; and is also forward looking as it is constructed using information implied by financial securities prices. Using equity prices and balance-sheet data, we calculate the END to assess systemic risk in the corporate sector in Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. We also discuss how the END systemic risk indicator overcomes some of the shortcomings of other vulnerability indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Toni Gravelle, 2005. "The END: A New Indicator of Financial and Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 2005/231, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/231
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ms. Piyabha Kongsamut & Mr. V. Haksar, 2003. "Dynamics of Corporate Performance in Thailand," IMF Working Papers 2003/214, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    3. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    5. Arnaud Jobert & Ms. Janet Kong & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2004/033, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Ms. Yoon Sook Kim, 2004. "Equity Prices, Credit Default Swaps, and Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2004/027, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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