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Price discovery process in the emerging sovereign CDS and equity markets

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  • Ngene, Geoffrey M.
  • Kabir Hassan, M.
  • Alam, Nafis

Abstract

We model two regimes using threshold cointegration and threshold vector error correction model for sovereign CDS and equity markets of thirteen emerging markets. We document evidence of momentum in cointegration relationships in CDS and equity markets of all countries. We find that positive and negative divergences adjust to equilibrium relationship at different speeds and magnitudes depending on the regime. Moreover, the short and long run adjustment process of each asset is nonlinear and regime dependent. Linear modeling may ignore the differential reaction of investors and policy makers and the time-varying market conditions under which economic and investment decisions take place

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  • Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Kabir Hassan, M. & Alam, Nafis, 2014. "Price discovery process in the emerging sovereign CDS and equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 117-132.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:21:y:2014:i:c:p:117-132
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2014.08.004
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    Cited by:

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    3. Papavassiliou, Vassilios G. & Kinateder, Harald, 2021. "Information shares and market quality before and during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Balcilar, Mehmet & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Distribution specific dependence and causality between industry-level U.S. credit and stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 114-133.
    5. Guesmi, Khaled & Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Goutte, Stéphane & Abid, Ilyes, 2018. "On the determinants of industry-CDS index spreads: Evidence from a nonlinear setting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 233-254.
    6. Atilgan, Yigit & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Simsek, Koray D., 2016. "Derivative markets in emerging economies: A survey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-102.
    7. Abid, Ilyes & Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled, 2019. "Contagion and bond pricing: The case of the ASEAN region," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 371-385.
    8. Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Batten, Jonathan A. & Fang, Victor, 2015. "What determines the yen swap spread?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2017. "Sovereign default risk linkage: Implication for portfolio diversification," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-16.
    10. Rahmi Erdem Aktug, 2015. "Empirical dynamics of emerging financial markets during the global mortgage crisis," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 15(1), pages 17-36, March.
    11. Theodoros Bratis & Nikiforos T. Laopodis & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2023. "CDS and equity markets’ volatility linkages: lessons from the EMU crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1259-1281, April.
    12. Sun, Xiaolei & Wang, Jun & Yao, Yanzhen & Li, Jingyu & Li, Jianping, 2020. "Spillovers among sovereign CDS, stock and commodity markets: A correlation network perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price discovery; CDS; Equity; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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