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Why is Micro Evidenceon the Effects of Uncertainty Not Replicated in Macro Data?

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  • Domenico Lombardi
  • Stephen Bond

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between uncertainty and investment using U.K. data at different levels of aggregation. Motivated by a comparative econometric analysis using a firm-level panel and aggregate time-series data, we analyze the implications of aggregating nonlinear microeconomic processes. Replicating firm-level evidence that uncertainty influences investment dynamics proves to be challenging. Even using perfectly consistent data sources, this requires both exact aggregation of the underlying micro equations, and controlling for the unobserved influences on investment that are commonly subsumed into time dummies in panel studies. These conditions are unlikely to be satisfied in most aggregate econometric studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Domenico Lombardi & Stephen Bond, 2005. "Why is Micro Evidenceon the Effects of Uncertainty Not Replicated in Macro Data?," IMF Working Papers 2005/158, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/158
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Frank Windmeijer, 2000. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear two-step GMM estimators," IFS Working Papers W00/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Domenico Lombardi & Stephen Bond, 2004. "To Buy or Not to Buy? Uncertainty, Irreversibility and Heterogeneous Investment Dynamics in Italian Company Data," IMF Working Papers 2004/104, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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