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To Buy or Not to Buy? Uncertainty, Irreversibility and Heterogeneous Investment Dynamics in Italian Company Data

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  • Domenico Lombardi
  • Stephen Bond

Abstract

This study tests for the presence of real options effects induced by uncertainty and (partial) irreversibility on fixed capital investment using Italian company data. The approach recognizes that firm-level investment spending may, itself, be aggregated over multiple investment decisions in separate types of capital goods and emphasizes effects of uncertainty on short-run investment dynamics. Using a survey-based measure of uncertainty related to the assessment of managers responsible for the firms' investment plans, the study finds evidence of heterogeneous and nonlinear dynamics pointing to a slower adjustment of investment in response to demand shocks at higher levels of uncertainty. The results also point to an additional source of nonlinearity originating from a convex response of investment to demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Domenico Lombardi & Stephen Bond, 2004. "To Buy or Not to Buy? Uncertainty, Irreversibility and Heterogeneous Investment Dynamics in Italian Company Data," IMF Working Papers 2004/104, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/104
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Giovannoni, Francesco & de Dios Tena, Juan, 2008. "Market concentration, macroeconomic uncertainty and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1097-1123, August.
    2. Domenico Lombardi & Stephen Bond, 2005. "Why is Micro Evidenceon the Effects of Uncertainty Not Replicated in Macro Data?," IMF Working Papers 2005/158, International Monetary Fund.

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