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How Private Creditors Fared in Emerging Debt Markets, 1970-2000

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  • Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
  • Ms. Beatrice Weder
  • Mr. Christoph A Klingen

Abstract

We estimate ex post returns to emerging market debt by combining secondary-market prices with observed flows based on World Bank data. From 1970-2000, returns averaged 9 percent per annum, about the same as returns on a ten-year U.S. treasury bond. This reflects the combined effect of the 1980s debt crisis and much higher returns during 1989-2000. Annual returns since 1986 have been less volatile than emerging market equity returns but more volatile than returns on U.S. corporate or high-yield bonds. However, unlike returns on these bonds, emerging market debt returns do not seem significantly correlated with U.S. or world stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Ms. Beatrice Weder & Mr. Christoph A Klingen, 2004. "How Private Creditors Fared in Emerging Debt Markets, 1970-2000," IMF Working Papers 2004/013, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/013
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mare Sarr & Erwin Bulte & Chris Meissner & Tim Swanson, 2011. "On the looting of nations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 353-380, September.
    3. Catão, Luis A.V. & Mano, Rui C., 2017. "Default premium," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 91-110.
    4. Hausmann, Ricardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2006. "Global Imbalances or Bad Accounting? The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations," Working Paper Series rwp06-003, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    5. Josefin Meyer & Carmen M Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2022. "Sovereign Bonds Since Waterloo," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1615-1680.
    6. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 317-330.
    7. Kim Oosterlinck, 2013. "Sovereign debt defaults: insights from history," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(4), pages 697-714, WINTER.
    8. Klaus Adam & Michael Grill, 2017. "Optimal Sovereign Default," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 128-164, January.
    9. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
    10. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, September.
    11. Michael Tomz & Mark L.J. Wright, 2013. "Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 247-272, May.
    12. Michael Bleaney & Veronica Veleanu, 2017. "Currency risk in corporate bond spreads in the eurozone," Discussion Papers 2017/07, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    13. Michael Grill & Klaus Adam, 2012. "Optimal Sovereign Debt Default," 2012 Meeting Papers 882, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Anna Gelpern & Ugo Panizza, 2022. "Enough Potential Repudiation: Economic and Legal Aspects of Sovereign Debt in the Pandemic Era," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 545-570, August.
    15. Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2013. "Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 85-117, July.
    16. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Federico Sturzenegger, 2005. "Haircuts," 2005 Meeting Papers 18, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2004. "What is An Emerging Market?," IMF Working Papers 2004/177, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Mr. James M. Boughton, 2005. "Does the World Need a Universal Financial Institution?," IMF Working Papers 2005/116, International Monetary Fund.

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