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The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics: Evidence from the United States

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  • Benoît Mercereau

Abstract

This paper tests a model of the role of stock markets in current account dynamics, developed in a companion paper. With U.S. data, the model performs better than the same model without stock markets. An insight given by the model is that the current account might help predict future stock market performance. This property receives some preliminary empirical confirmation. The results also suggest that stock markets matter to the current account dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Benoît Mercereau, 2003. "The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics: Evidence from the United States," IMF Working Papers 2003/108, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/108
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    2. Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "The Role of Current Account Balance in Forecasting the US Equity Premium: Evidence From a Quantile Predictive Regression Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 47-59, February.
    3. Komain Jiranyakul, 2017. "Asset Prices, Real Exchange Rate and Current Account Fluctuations: Some Structural VAR Evidence for Thailand," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 7(2), pages 163-177, December.
    4. Kitamura, Yoshihiro, 2009. "The current account and stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 302-321, September.
    5. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Rangan Gupta & Aviral K. Tiwari, 2018. "Time-varying correlations between trade balance and stock prices in the United States over the period 1792 to 2013," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(4), pages 795-806, October.
    7. Middendorf, Torge & Schmidt, Torsten, 2004. "Characterizing Movements of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," RWI Discussion Papers 24, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    8. Torsten Schmidt & Torge Middendorf, 2004. "Characterizing Movements of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," RWI Discussion Papers 0024, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    9. Chen Kuo, 2013. "Is the liberalization policy effective on improving bivariate cointegration of current accounts, foreign exchange, stock prices? Further evidence from Asian markets," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1923-1941, June.
    10. Luqman SAFDAR, 2014. "The relationship between twin deficit and stock market: An ARDL approach from Pakistan," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(33), pages 109-121, May.

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