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Challenging the Empirical Evidence From Present Value Models of the Current Account

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  • Mr. Jacques A Miniane
  • Benoît Mercereau

Abstract

Under near-singularity conditions typically generated by persistence in current account data the predictions of present value models become extremely sensitive to small sample estimation error. Moreover, traditional Wald tests will distort the likelihood that the model is true. Using OECD data we find that: (i) the Wald test often leads to the wrong inference compared to a valid test; (ii) in all cases posterior distributions of the predicted series and associated correlation coefficients and variance ratios are very wide. In particular, one cannot draw any firm conclusion regarding excess current account volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jacques A Miniane & Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "Challenging the Empirical Evidence From Present Value Models of the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 2004/106, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gavilan, Angel, 2011. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 205-228, February.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "External Imbalances in an Advanced, Commodity-Exporting Country: The Case of New Zealand," NBER Working Papers 12620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Sebastián Edwards, 2007. "On Current Account Surpluses and the Correction of Global Imbalances," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 440, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Makin, Anthony J. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2011. "Have domestic or foreign factors driven European external imbalances?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 537-546, April.
    6. Michele Ca' Zorzi & Michał Rubaszek, 2012. "On the Empirical Evidence of the Intertemporal Current Account Model for the Euro Area Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 95-106, February.
    7. Anthony Makin & Wei Zhang & Grant Scobie, 2009. "The contribution of foreign borrowing to the New Zealand economy," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 263-278.
    8. Neil Dias Karunaratne, 2008. "The Polemics and Empirics of the Sustainability of Australia's Current Account Deficit - Revisited," Discussion Papers Series 364, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    9. Karunaratne, Neil Dias, 2010. "The sustainability of Australia's current account deficits--A reappraisal after the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 81-97, January.
    10. Anella Munro & Rishab Sethi, 2006. "The Present Value Model and New Zealand’s Current Account," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/12, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    11. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, February.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "New Zealand: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2006/161, International Monetary Fund.

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