IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dug/journl/y2014i1p109-121.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The relationship between twin deficit and stock market: An ARDL approach from Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Luqman SAFDAR

    (MBA/ MS Scholar, Air University, Islamabad, (Multan Campus),)

Abstract

Current study examines the relationship of twin deficit with stock market for Pakistan from 1992 to 2012.The results of ADF test shows that variables are not integrate at same order; hence, ARDL approach is used to examine the long run relationship among variables. The result of bound test rejects the null hypothesis of no Cointegration among variables and long run model shows positive relationship of twin deficit for Pakistan. In short run the results remain same and disequilibrium in short run is adjusted rapidly back towards long run. The positive and significant relation of twin deficit with stock market for Pakistan is due to high development expenditures, increasing debt level, and incoming of foreign aid and assistance. Government must adopt solid tactic to cut down its expenditures and utilized scare resources to reduce twin deficit, as stock market of Pakistan is highly volatile.

Suggested Citation

  • Luqman SAFDAR, 2014. "The relationship between twin deficit and stock market: An ARDL approach from Pakistan," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(33), pages 109-121, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:dug:journl:y:2014:i:1:p:109-121
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journals.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/euroeconomica/article/view/2335/2501
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jarita Duasa, 2007. "Determinants of Malaysian Trade Balance: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 89-102.
    2. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-191, January.
    3. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "What do budget deficits do?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 95-119.
    4. Benoît Mercereau, 2003. "The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics: Evidence from the United States," IMF Working Papers 2003/108, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Quayes, Shakil, 2010. "Does budget deficit lower equity prices in USA?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 155-157, May.
    6. V. Vance Roley & Lawrence D. Schall, 1988. "Federal deficits and the stock market," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 73(Apr), pages 17-27.
    7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    8. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    10. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. "The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    11. Bahram Adrangi & Mary Allender, 1998. "Budget deficits and stock prices: International evidence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 57-66, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pooja Joshi & Arun Kumar Giri, 2015. "Fiscal Deficits and Stock Prices in India: Empirical Evidence," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-18, August.
    2. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    3. Igbinedion Sunday Osahon & Oriakhi Dickson, 2013. "Fiscal Deficits And Stock Prices In Nigeria: An Empirical Evidence," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 22(1), pages 259-274, june.
    4. Ozturk, Ilhan & Acaravci, Ali, 2010. "The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1938-1943, June.
    5. Sohail Abbas & Shazia Kousar & Amber Pervaiz, 2021. "Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on CO2 emissions: an empirical evidence from Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13364-13381, September.
    6. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Johannes W. Fedderke & John M. Luiz, 2006. "Fractionalization and Long-Run Economic Growth: Webs and Direction of Association between the Economic and the Social – South Africa as a Time Series Case Study," Working Papers 022, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    8. Ceyhun Haydaroglu, 2015. "The Relationship between Property Rights and Economic Growth: an Analysis of OECD and EU Countries," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 4, pages 217-239, December.
    9. Biru Paul & Md. Uddin & Abdullah Noman, 2011. "Remittances and output in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 58(2), pages 229-242, June.
    10. Jude Okechukwu Chukwu, 2013. "Budget Deficits, Money Growth and Price Level in Nigeria," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(4), pages 468-477, December.
    11. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Mercy T. Musakwa, 2022. "Bank Development and Unemployment in Kenya: An Empirical Investigation," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 20(2 (Summer), pages 85-107.
    12. Ekpete, Marshall Simeon & Kenn-Ndubuisi, Juliet Ifechi*, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects on Stock Market Returns in Nigeria," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 6(5), pages 99-109, September.
    13. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Nyasha S. & Odhiambo N. M., 2016. "The Impact of Bank-Based and Market-Based Financial Development on Economic Growth: Time-Series Evidence From the United Kingdom," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 389-410, June.
    15. Fedderke, J.W. & Perkins, P. & Luiz, J.M., 2006. "Infrastructural investment in long-run economic growth: South Africa 1875-2001," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1037-1059, June.
    16. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2019. "Government Expenditures and Revenues in Italy in a Long-run Perspective," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 361-375, June.
    17. Kevin Nell, 2003. "A 'Generalised' Version of the Balance-of-Payments Growth Model: An application to neighbouring regions," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 249-267.
    18. Muhammad Arshad & Faisal Abbas & Harald Kächele & Yasir Mehmood & Nasir Mahmood & Klaus Mueller, 2022. "Analyzing the Impact of Government Social Spending, Population Growth and Foreign Remittances on Human Development in Pakistan: Implications for Policy," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(3), pages 1607-1626, June.
    19. Majeed, Raseena & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Impact of macroeconomic variables on shariah stock markets: evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 106118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Mercy T. Musakwa, 2022. "Bank Development and Unemployment in Kenya: An Empirical Investigation," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 20(2 (Summer), pages 85-107.
    21. Helal Uddin & Md. Hasanur Rahman & Shapan Chandra Majumder, 2022. "The impact of agricultural production and remittance inflows on economic growth in Bangladesh using ARDL technique," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 1-25, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dug:journl:y:2014:i:1:p:109-121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Nuta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fedanro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.