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Population Aging and its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis

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  • Mr. Hamid Faruqee

Abstract

This paper develops a model to examine the macroeconomic implications of population aging. Using a general equilibrium framework, the analysis examines the various channels through which changes in demographics affect the economy. Age-earnings profiles are taken to summarize differences in effective labor supply across age groups and to help determine changes in consumption and saving behavior that occur over an agent's lifetime. Aggregating these supply- and demand-side effects, the implications of aging on economic activity and fiscal policy are then examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2002/016, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/016
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    Cited by:

    1. Hamid Faruqee, 2003. "Debt, Deficits, and Age-specific Mortality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 300-312, April.
    2. Takashi Kozu & Yoshiko Sato & Masakazu Inada, 2003. "Demographic Changes in Japan and their Macroeconomic Effects," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    3. Fujiwara, Ippei & Hara, Naoko & Hirose, Yasuo & Teranishi, Yuki, 2005. "The Japanese Economic Model (JEM)," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(2), pages 61-142, May.
    4. Kuhn, Michael & Wrzaczek, Stefan & Prskawetz, Alexia & Feichtinger, Gustav, 2015. "Optimal choice of health and retirement in a life-cycle model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PA), pages 186-212.
    5. Mr. Hamid Faruqee & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2006. "Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging," IMF Working Papers 2006/095, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ms. Dora M Iakova, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Migration from the New European Union Member States to the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers 2007/061, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jung, Juergen & Tran, Chung & Chambers, Matthew, 2017. "Aging and health financing in the U.S.: A general equilibrium analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 428-462.
    8. Yoon, Jong-Won & Kim, Jinill & Lee, Jungjin, 2018. "Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 40(1), pages 1-30.
    9. Faruqee, Hamid & Muhleisen, Martin, 2003. "Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-210, April.
    10. Narciso, Alexandre, 2010. "The impact of population ageing on international capital flows," MPRA Paper 26457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mukesh Chawla & Gordon Betcherman & Arup Banerji, 2007. "From Red to Gray : The "Third Transition" of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6741.
    12. Mr. Lamin Y Leigh, 2006. "Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Macroeconomic Impact of an Aging Population in a Highly Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 2006/087, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Liu, Weifeng Larry, 2022. "Demographic change, national saving and international capital flows," Conference papers 333413, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Mao, Rui & Xu, Jianwei, 2014. "Population aging, consumption budget allocation and sectoral growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 44-65.
    15. Ralph C Bryant, 2006. "Asymmetric Demography and Macroeconomic Interactions Across National Borders," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    16. Weifeng Liu & Warwick McKibbin, 2022. "Global macroeconomic impacts of demographic change," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 914-942, March.
    17. Seitz, Helmut & Freigang, Dirk & Kempkes, Gerhard, 2005. "Demographic Change and Federal Systems: Some Preliminary Results for Germany," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/05, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.

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