IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2006-095.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Hamid Faruqee
  • Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa

Abstract

This paper simulates the macroeconomic effects of population aging in a dynamic overlapping generations model of a small open economy. The model is calibrated to data for the Czech Republic, where population aging is proceeding at a pace comparable to that in other advanced countries in Europe. Simulations show that population aging is likely to slow economic growth and improvements in living standards. Although reforms to raise labor force participation and productivity growth can mitigate these adverse effects, they are unlikely to eliminate the need for fiscal reforms. The budget will come under pressure from rising age-related expenditures, and consolidation will be needed to preserve debt sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Hamid Faruqee & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2006. "Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging," IMF Working Papers 2006/095, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/095
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18947
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davies, James B, 1981. "Uncertain Lifetime, Consumption, and Dissaving in Retirement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(3), pages 561-577, June.
    2. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    3. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Steven Symansky, 1997. "Government Debt, Life-Cycle Income, and Liquidity Constraints: Beyond Approximate Ricardian Equivalence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 374-382, September.
    4. Mr. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2002/016, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    6. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
    7. Mr. Hamid Faruqee & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2000. "Life-Cycles, Dynasties, Savings: Implications for Closed and Small, Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 2000/126, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Abel, Andrew B, 1985. "Precautionary Saving and Accidental Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 777-791, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yoon, Jong-Won & Kim, Jinill & Lee, Jungjin, 2018. "Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 40(1), pages 1-30.
    2. World Bank, 2014. "Poland : Saving for Growth and Prosperous Aging," World Bank Publications - Reports 20441, The World Bank Group.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hamid Faruqee, 2003. "Debt, Deficits, and Age-specific Mortality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 300-312, April.
    2. Faruqee, Hamid & Muhleisen, Martin, 2003. "Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-210, April.
    3. Mr. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2002/016, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 2006/009, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Dirk V Muir & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Dennis P Botman & Mr. Andrei Romanov, 2006. "A New-Open-Economy Macro Model for Fiscal Policy Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 2006/045, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Dennis P Botman, 2006. "Fundamental Determinants of the Effects of Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 2006/072, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Théophile T. Azomahou & Raouf Boucekkine & Bity Diene, 2009. "A closer look at the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(2), pages 201-244, June.
    8. Ms. Dora M Iakova, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Migration from the New European Union Member States to the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers 2007/061, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    10. Willman, Alpo, 2007. "Sequential optimization, front-loaded information, and U.S. consumption," Working Paper Series 765, European Central Bank.
    11. Silvia Sgherri, 2002. "The fiscal dimension of a common monetary policy: results with a non-Ricardian global model," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 449-479.
    12. Fujiwara, Ippei & Hara, Naoko & Hirose, Yasuo & Teranishi, Yuki, 2005. "The Japanese Economic Model (JEM)," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(2), pages 61-142, May.
    13. Pelgrin, Florian & Venditti, Alain, 2022. "On the long-run fluctuations of inheritance in two-sector OLG models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    14. Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle & D'Albis, Hippolyte, 2009. "Continuous-Time Overlapping Generations Models," TSE Working Papers 09-047, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    15. Kwack, Sung Yeung & Lee, Young Sun, 2005. "What determines saving rates in Korea?: The role of demography," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 861-873, October.
    16. Warwick J. McKibbin & Jeremy Nguyen, 2004. "Modelling Global Demographic Change:Results For Japan," CAMA Working Papers 2004-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Mengyuan Zhou, 2022. "Does the Source of Inheritance Matter in Bequest Attitudes? Evidence from Japan," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 867-887, December.
    18. Mengyuan Zhou, 2019. "The Effect of the Source of Inheritance on Bequest Attitudes: Evidence from Japan," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2019-018, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    19. Brito Paulo & Marini Giancarlo & Piergallini Alessandro, 2016. "House prices and monetary policy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 251-277, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/095. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.