IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/1998-103.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies: Further Empirical Results

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Carranza
  • Mr. Chorng-Huey Wong

Abstract

A bivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) model is used to test causal relations between the current account and the capital account in four emerging market economies. The results show that high capital mobility could be a major cause of current account instability. Therefore, macroeconomic policy to restore external balance must deal directly with capital inflows. The paper recommends making nominal exchange rate sufficiently flexible to avoid inconsistencies between short-run and long-run real exchange rates; complementing credit tightening by fiscal restraint to reduce interest rate differentials; and strengthening reforms and surveillance of the financial system to prevent banks from excessive risk taking.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Carranza & Mr. Chorng-Huey Wong, 1998. "Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies: Further Empirical Results," IMF Working Papers 1998/103, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1998/103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2678
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 2001. "The Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s," MPRA Paper 7577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    3. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, July.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, July.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    7. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Varieties of Capital-Market Crises," International Economic Association Series, in: Guillermo Calvo & Mervyn King (ed.), The Debt Burden and its Consequences for Monetary Policy, chapter 7, pages 181-207, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Policy Briefs PB98-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    9. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "Asian Financial Crisis: Causes, Cures and Systemic Implications, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa55, April.
    10. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1995. "Varieties of Capital-Market Crises," Research Department Publications 4008, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    11. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 219-294.
    12. George Soros, 1999. "The International Financial Crisis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 58-76, March.
    13. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-95 debt crisis," Staff Report 210, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. Ms. Carmen Reinhart & Mr. Mohsin S. Khan, 1995. "Capital Flows in the APEC Region," IMF Occasional Papers 1995/015, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Calvo, Guillermo A & Mendoza, Enrique G, 1996. "Petty Crime and Cruel Punishment: Lessons from the Mexican Debacle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 170-175, May.
    16. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yan, Ho-don, 2007. "Does capital mobility finance or cause a current account imbalance?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-25, March.
    2. repec:ire:issued:v:26:n:03:2023:p:342-391 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Yusuf Ekrem Akbas & Mehmet Senturk & Canan Sancar, 2013. "Testing for Causality between the Foreign Direct Investment, Current Account Deficit, GDP and Total Credit: Evidence from G7," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 791-812, December.
    4. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Fiscal stance, foreign capital inflows and the behavior of current account in the Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 523-549, February.
    5. B. Bayraktar-Saglam & A.Y. Yalta, 2015. "Current Account Imbalances and Capital Flows," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 7(2), pages 201-213, May.
    6. Chakraborty, Debashis & Mukherjee, Jaydeep & Sinha, Tanaya, 2010. "The Structural Relationship between Current and Capital Account Balance in India: A Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper 22806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ho-don Yan, 2005. "Causal Relationship Between the Current Account and Financial Account," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 149-162, May.
    8. Yan, Ho-don & Yang, Cheng-lang, 2008. "Foreign Capital Inflows and the Current Account Imbalance: Which Causality Direction?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 434-461.
    9. Tanveer Ahmad Khan, 2022. "Current and Capital Account Dynamics in India: An Empirical Analysis of the Post-Reform Period," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(1), pages 41-65, February.
    10. Sariye Belgin Akcay, 2023. "Current Account Imbalances, House Prices, and Institutions," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(3), pages 343-392.
    11. Tuck Cheong Tang & Dietrich Fausten, 2008. "Current And Capital Account Interdependence: An Empirical Test," Monash Economics Working Papers 04/08, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    12. Ho-don Yan & Cheng-lang Yang, 2012. "Are there different linkages of foreign capital inflows and the current account between industrial countries and emerging markets?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 25-54, August.
    13. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2009. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis: Evidence from East Asian countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2517-2524.
    14. repec:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:2:p:149-162 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Debashis Chakraborty & Jaydeep Mukherjee & Tanaya Sinha, 2012. "Is there any Long-run Relationship between India’s Current and Capital Account Balance? A Time Series Analysis," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 13(3), pages 433-447, October.
    16. Evan LAU & Nelson FU, 2011. "Financial And Current Account Interrelationship: An Empirical Test," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(1(15)/ Sp), pages 34-42.
    17. Arhan S. Ertan & Gürbüz Kıran, 2021. "Global financial environment or monetary transmission mechanism? The (special) dynamics of Turkey's external deficit after 2002," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4054-4076, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mr. Alejandro Lopez Mejia, 1999. "Large Capital Flows: A Survey of the Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," IMF Working Papers 1999/017, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1999. "Lessons from the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 709-723, August.
    5. Mohsin S. Khan, 1998. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Blessing or Curse?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 125-151.
    6. Griffith-Jones, Stephany & Montes, Manuel F. & Nasution, Anwar (ed.), 2001. "Short-Term Capital Flows and Economic Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296867.
    7. Mark A. Carlson & Leonardo Hernandez, 2002. "Determinants and repercussions of the composition of capital inflows," International Finance Discussion Papers 717, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin & Andrew Crockett & Michael P. Dooley & Montek S. Ahluwalia, 2003. "Financial Policies," NBER Chapters, in: Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, pages 93-154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    10. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    11. Rafael Fernández & Clara García, 2018. "Wheels within wheels within wheels: the importance of capital inflows in the origin of the Spanish financial crisis [Current Account Patterns and National Real Estate Markets]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(2), pages 331-353.
    12. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
    13. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part II: The Policy Debate," NBER Working Papers 6834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Sweta Saxena & Kar-yiu Wong, 1999. "Currency Crises and Capital Control: A Survey," Working Papers 0045, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    15. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    16. Assaf Razin & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," IMF Working Papers 1996/110, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Clara Garcia, 2004. "Capital Inflows, Policy Responses, and Their Ill Consequences: Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia in the Decade Before the Crises," Working Papers wp81, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    18. Goldstein, Morris, 1995. "Coping with too much of a good thing : policy responses for large capital inflows in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1507, The World Bank.
    19. Mr. Mark S. Carlson & Mr. Leonardo Hernández, 2002. "Determinants and Repercussions of the Composition of Capital Inflows," IMF Working Papers 2002/086, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi, 2007. "Aliran Modal Masuk (Capital Inflows) Dan Implikasinya Bagi Perekonomian Indonesia [The Implications of the Capital Inflows on Indonesian Economy]," MPRA Paper 65905, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; deficit; balance; nominal exchange rate; capital inflows; emerging market economies; external imbalances; exchange rate policy; policy designs; causality test; current account position; increase in capital account surplus; current account response; exchange rate volatility; capital account imbalance; capital account shock; interest rate differential; current account result; current account equilibrium; flexible exchange rate regime; exchange rate system; responses to shock; Capital account; Current account; Real exchange rates; Current account deficits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1998/103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.