IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ush/jaessh/v6y2011i1(15)_spring2011p128.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial And Current Account Interrelationship: An Empirical Test

Author

Listed:
  • Evan LAU
  • Nelson FU

Abstract

Theoretically, financial account (FA) serves as a means of financing deficit in a country’s current account (CA). With the outburst of the rapid globalization and the liberalization of the capital markets, the function of FA could be a major cause of CA instability. This study empirically investigates the interrelationship between CA and the components of FA for the four crisis-affected Asian countries of Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines and Thailand. Empirical results show that deficit in CA mirror the surplus in FA supporting the theoretical foundation of balance of payment (BOP). We observed CA Granger causes FA suggesting that CA can be used as the control policy variable for the flows of capital in these countries. Therefore, the innovation of CA (whether deficit or surplus) would be important information for the liberalization and globalization of FA.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan LAU & Nelson FU, 2011. "Financial And Current Account Interrelationship: An Empirical Test," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(1(15)/ Sp), pages 34-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:6:y:2011:i:1(15)_spring2011:p:128
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.jaes.reprograph.ro/articles/spring2011/LauE_FuNelson.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Tuck Cheong Tang & Dietrich Fausten, 2008. "Current And Capital Account Interdependence: An Empirical Test," Monash Economics Working Papers 04/08, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    3. Yan, Ho-don & Yang, Cheng-lang, 2008. "Foreign Capital Inflows and the Current Account Imbalance: Which Causality Direction?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 434-461.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Makin, Anthony J. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Have US external imbalances been determined at home or abroad?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 520-531, May.
    6. Kaminsky, Graciela Laura & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2002. "Short-run pain, long-run gain : the effects of financial liberalization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2912, The World Bank.
    7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    8. Ho-Don Yan, 1999. "Intertemporal current account balance and the East Asian currency crises," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(3), pages 277-288, August.
    9. Dietrich K. Fausten, 1990. "Current and Capital Account Interdependence," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 12(2), pages 273-292, January.
    10. Chorng-Huey Wong & Luis Carranza, 1999. "Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies: Further Empirical Results," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-5.
    11. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "Savings Gluts and Interest Rates: The Missing Link to Europe," NBER Working Papers 11520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Christopoulos, Dimitris & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "Current account sustainability in the US: What did we really know about it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-459, April.
    13. -, 1995. "Foreign direct investment in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 27404, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    14. Yan, Ho-don, 2007. "Does capital mobility finance or cause a current account imbalance?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-25, March.
    15. PAUL CASHIN & C. JOHN McDERMOTT, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.
    16. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2000. "Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-271, April.
    17. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    18. Edwards, Sebastian, 2007. "Capital controls, capital flow contractions, and macroeconomic vulnerability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 814-840, September.
    19. Dietrich K. Fausten, 1989. "Current and Capital Account Interdependence," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 273-292, December.
    20. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2005:i:mar10 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Rosenswieg, Jeffrey A & Tallman, Ellis W, 1993. "Fiscal Policy and Trade Adjustment: Are the Deficits Really Twins?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(4), pages 580-594, October.
    22. Lau, Evan & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Haw, Chan Tze, 2006. "Current account: mean-reverting or random walk behavior?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 90-107, January.
    23. Irandoust Manuchehr & Sjoo Boo, 2000. "The Behavior of the Current Account in Response to Unobservable and Observable Shocks," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 41-57.
    24. Ho-don Yan, 2005. "Causal Relationship Between the Current Account and Financial Account," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 149-162, May.
    25. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 1999. "Capital Flows to Developing Economies: Implications for Saving and Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 143-180.
    26. Eichengreen, Barry, 2006. "Global imbalances: The new economy, the dark matter, the savvy investor, and the standard analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 645-652, September.
    27. George Vamvoukas, 1999. "The twin deficits phenomenon: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1093-1100.
    28. Giavazzi, Francesco & Blanchard, Olivier & Sá, Filipa, 2005. "The US Current Account and the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 4888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Fountas Stilianos & Wu Jyh-Lin, 1999. "Are the U.S. Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 51-58.
    30. Sajal Lahiri & A. K. M. Mahbub Morshed, 2010. "Current Account Imbalances and Foreign Investment: A Theoretical Analysis of Interrelationships and Causalities," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 369-381, May.
    31. Lau, Evan & Zubaidi Baharumshah, Ahmad, 2005. "Mean-reverting behavior of current account in Asian countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 367-371, June.
    32. Lori Leachman & Bill Francis, 2002. "Twin Deficits: Apparition or Reality?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1121-1132.
    33. repec:bla:ecorec:v:74:y:1998:i:227:p:346-61 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Fry, Maxwell J. & Claessens,Constantijn A. & Burridge, Peter & Blanchet, Marie-Christine, 1995. "Foreign direct investment, other capital flows, and current account deficits : what causes what?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1527, The World Bank.
    35. Ben S. Bernanke, 2005. "The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit," Speech 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2005. "Capital controls and exchange rate instability in developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 387-412, April.
    37. repec:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:2:p:149-162 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    39. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    40. Kim, Bong-Han & Min, Hong-Ghi & Hwang, Young-Soon & McDonald, Judith A., 2009. "Are Asian countries' current accounts sustainable? Deficits, even when associated with high investment, are not costless," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 163-179.
    41. Fry, M.J., 1995. "Foreign Direct Investment in Mauritius and the Far East," Papers 95-07, University of Birmingham - International Financial Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Radovan Kovačević, 2022. "The Effects Of Fdi Net Inflow On The Current Account Of Southeast Europe Countries – A Panel Causality Analysis," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 67(235), pages 95-122, October –.
    2. Ashima Goyal & Vaishnavi Sharma, 2019. "Estimating the Relationship Between the Current Account, the Capital Account and Investment for India," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(1), pages 29-45, February.
    3. Özcan Karahan & Olcay Çolak, 2020. "An Examination Of The Causality Relationship Between Current And Financial Accounts In Turkey," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(224), pages 7-28, January –.
    4. Wahyoe Soedarmono & Iman Gunadi & Fiskara Indawan & Carla Sheila Wulandari, 2022. "The Dynamics Of Foreign Capital Flows In Indonesia: Sources And Implications On Bond Market And Bank Stability," Working Papers WP/03/2022, Bank Indonesia.
    5. Tanveer Ahmad Khan, 2022. "Current and Capital Account Dynamics in India: An Empirical Analysis of the Post-Reform Period," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(1), pages 41-65, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. E Lau & S Abu Mansor & C-H Puah, 2010. "Revival of the Twin Deficits in Asian Crisis-affected Countries," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 15(1), pages 29-54, March.
    2. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2011. "Current account deficits and sustainability: Evidence from the OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1455-1464, July.
    3. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2011. "Are current account deficits really sustainable in the G-7 countries?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 190-201.
    4. Yan, Ho-don & Yang, Cheng-lang, 2008. "Foreign Capital Inflows and the Current Account Imbalance: Which Causality Direction?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 434-461.
    5. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
    6. B. Bayraktar-Saglam & A.Y. Yalta, 2015. "Current Account Imbalances and Capital Flows," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 7(2), pages 201-213, May.
    7. Tanveer Ahmad Khan, 2022. "Current and Capital Account Dynamics in India: An Empirical Analysis of the Post-Reform Period," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(1), pages 41-65, February.
    8. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 365-379.
    9. Oeking, Anne & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "On the relation between capital flows and the current account," Ruhr Economic Papers 565, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2009. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis: Evidence from East Asian countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2517-2524.
    11. repec:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:2:p:149-162 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Smooth transition, non-linearity and current account sustainability: Evidence from the European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 541-554.
    13. Ho-don Yan, 2005. "Causal Relationship Between the Current Account and Financial Account," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 149-162, May.
    14. Piotr Bartkiewicz, 2020. "Quantitative Easing: New Normal or Emergency Measure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    15. Evan Lau & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Twin deficits in Cambodia: An Empirical Study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2783-2794.
    16. Tahir Mukhtar & Aliya H. Khan, 2016. "The Current Account Deficit Sustainability: An Empirical Investigation for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 397-419.
    17. Evan Lau & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Twin deficits in Cambodia: Are there Reasons for Concern? An Empirical Study," Monash Economics Working Papers 11-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    18. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2013. "Long memory and regime switching properties of current account deficits in the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 78-87.
    19. Kim, Bong-Han & Min, Hong-Ghi & Hwang, Young-Soon & McDonald, Judith A., 2009. "Are Asian countries' current accounts sustainable? Deficits, even when associated with high investment, are not costless," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 163-179.
    20. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2010. "Testing for the Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit in Four Industrial Countries: A Revisitation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1474-1495.
    21. Olufemi G. Onatunji, 2023. "Sustainability of current account deficits in Nigeria: evidence from the asymmetric NARDL approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(10), pages 1-22, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; financial account; Asian; causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:6:y:2011:i:1(15)_spring2011:p:128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Laura Stefanescu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fmuspro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.