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How to Deal with Azerbaijan’s Oil Boom? Policy Strategies in a Resource-Rich Transition Economy

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  • Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg
  • Mr. Tapio Saavalainen

Abstract

The petroleum-rich former Soviet republics around the Caspian Sea face the dual challenge of managing the transition to a market economy and a booming resource sector. This paper examines this challenge with particular reference to Azerbaijan. The standard “Dutch disease” model is modified to capture the special conditions of transition economies, with specific attention to the pattern of real exchange rate movement. “Transition factors” are found to add to the speed of real appreciation. Non-oil sectors may suffer, but less through the real appreciation than through transition-specific structural problems. The paper describes a medium-term policy strategy for Azerbaijan, relating its prospects to the experience in the 1970s of Ecuador, Indonesia, and Nigeria. The adverse effects of the Dutch disease may be avoided if Azerbaijan pursues policies to promote savings and open trade, and strengthens the supply side through structural policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg & Mr. Tapio Saavalainen, 1998. "How to Deal with Azerbaijan’s Oil Boom? Policy Strategies in a Resource-Rich Transition Economy," IMF Working Papers 1998/006, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1998/006
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sabiroglu, Ilkin M. & Bashirli, Samad, 2012. "Input–output analysis in an oil-rich economy: The case of Azerbaijan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 73-80.
    3. Eismont Oleg & Kuralbaeva Karlygash, 1999. "Depletion of Natural Resources and Long-term Perspectives of the Russian Economy," EERC Working Paper Series 99-07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    4. World Bank, 2003. "Azerbaijan : Public Expenditure Review," World Bank Publications - Reports 13825, The World Bank Group.
    5. Ilkin Sabiroglu & Samad Bashirli & Faiq Qasimli, 2011. "Creating a Favourable Deployment Mechanism of Oil and Gas Revenues with Regard to Volatile Oil Prices: The Case of Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(1), pages 179-199, September.
    6. Marañon, Matias & Kumral, Mustafa, 2021. "Empirical analysis of Chile's copper boom and the Dutch Disease through causality and cointegration tests," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "The Dutch Disease: evidences from Russia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 243-277, August.
    8. Auty, R. M., 2001. "Transition reform in the mineral-rich Caspian region countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 25-32, March.
    9. Kutan, Ali M. & Wyzan, Michael L., 2005. "Explaining the real exchange rate in Kazakhstan, 1996-2003: Is Kazakhstan vulnerable to the Dutch disease?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 242-255, June.

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