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Term, Inflation, and Foreign Exchange Risk Premia: A Unified Treatment

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  • Lars E.O. Svensson

Abstract

The paper reviews the theoretical foundations of the use of forward interest rates to infer expected future rates of interest, inflation, currency depreciation and inflation differentials. Forward rates are related to these expected future variables via combinations of term, inflation and foreign exchange risk premia. A unified derivation, discussion and comparison of these premia is provided under both general and specific assumptions, as well as some comments on empirical estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993. "Term, Inflation, and Foreign Exchange Risk Premia: A Unified Treatment," NBER Working Papers 4544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4544
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    Cited by:

    1. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
    2. Svensson, L.E.O., 1994. "The Swedish Experiences of Inflation Target," Papers 587, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    3. Cavaglia, Stefano M. F. G. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1996. "A note on the determinants of unexpected exchange rate movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 179-188, January.
    4. Dillen, Hans, 1997. "A model of the term structure of interest rates in an open economy with regime shifts1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 795-819, September.
    5. Dr. Petra Gerlach & Dr. Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," Working Papers 2010-12, Swiss National Bank.
    6. Koziol, Philipp, 2014. "Inflation and interest rate derivatives for FX risk management: Implications for exporting firms under real wealth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 459-472.
    7. Peter Lildholdt & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & Chris Peacock, 2007. "An affine macro-factor model of the UK yield curve," Bank of England working papers 322, Bank of England.
    8. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2004. "The Magic of the Exchange Rate: Optimal Escape from a Liquidity Trap in Small and Large OPen Economies," Working Papers 072004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    9. Mahajan, Arvind & Wagner, Andrew J., 1999. "Nonlinear dynamics in foreign exchange rates," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23.
    10. Schich, Sebastian T., 1996. "Alternative specifications of the German term structure and its information content regarding inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,08e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Jiří Málek & Jarmila Radová & Filip Štěrba, 2007. "Konstrukce výnosové křivky pomocí vládních dluhopisů v České republice [Vield curve construction using government bonds in the Czech republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(6), pages 792-808.
    12. Schich, Sebastian T., 1996. "Alternative Spezifikationen der deutschen Zinsstrukturkurve und ihr Informationsgehalt hinsichtlich der Inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Svensson, L.E.O., 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Foreward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-1994," Papers 579, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    14. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2003. "The term structure of deviations from the interest parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 57-67, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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