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Real options -- delay vs. pre-emption: Do industrial characteristics matter?

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  • Driver, Ciaran
  • Temple, Paul
  • Urga, Giovanni

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical study of the channels of influence from uncertainty to fixed investment suggested by real options theory. Using panel data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Survey, we report OLS estimates of the impact of uncertainty on investment where the regressors are augmented by cross-sectional averages of the dependent variable and of the individual specific regressors, as recently suggested by Pesaran [Pesaran, M.H., 2006. Estimation and Inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica 74, 967-1012]. The cross-industry pattern of results is checked for consistency with the pattern predicted by real options theory, using a specially constructed data set of industrial characteristics. We find that irreversibility is able to predict the pattern detected, but only when combined with a measure of the information advantage of delay. There is also evidence for expansion options effects; industries with high R&D and advertising intensities tend to have positive uncertainty effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Driver, Ciaran & Temple, Paul & Urga, Giovanni, 2008. "Real options -- delay vs. pre-emption: Do industrial characteristics matter?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 532-545, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:26:y:2008:i:2:p:532-545
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Versaevel, 2015. "Alertness, Leadership, and Nascent Market Dynamics," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 440-466, December.
    2. Ciaran Driver & Katsushi Imai, 2011. "Testing the uncertainty-investment relationship using survey data on capital stock disequilibrium," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 305-310.
    3. Xu, Zhaoxia, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty, cost of capital, and corporate innovation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Michi Nishihara, 2014. "Valuation of sequential R&D investment under technological, market, and rival preemption uncertainty," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 14-13, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    5. Driver, Ciaran & Guedes, Maria João Coelho, 2012. "Research and development, cash flow, agency and governance: UK large companies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1565-1577.
    6. Bruno Versaevel, 2009. "Cumulative Leadership and Entry Dynamics," Post-Print halshs-00371847, HAL.
    7. Michi Nishihara, 2017. "Valuation of an R&D project with three types of uncertainty," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 17-15, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    8. Kevin Lee & Paul Mizen & Michael Mahony, 2022. "Investment and Capacity Utilisation in a Putty-Clay Framework," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2022-03, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    9. Huberts, Nick F.D. & Rossi Silveira, Rafael, 2023. "How economic depreciation shapes the relationship of uncertainty with investments’ size & timing," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    10. Michi Nishihara, 2018. "Valuation of an R&D project with three types of uncertainty," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(1), pages 93-113, June.
    11. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2021. "The uncertainty-investment relationship with endogenous capacity," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    12. Huang, Hsing-Hua & Chuang, Wei-Liang, 2013. "Real options game over the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 715-721.

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