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Honest confidence regions for a regression parameter in logistic regression with a large number of controls

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  • Alexandre Belloni

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Victor Chernozhukov

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and MIT)

  • Ying Wei

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

This paper considers inference in logistic regression models with high dimensional data. We propose new methods for estimating and constructing confidence regions for a regression parameter of primary interest a0 a parameter in front of the regressor of interest, such as the treatment variable or policy variable. These methods allow to estimate a0 at the root-n rate when the total number p of other regressors, called controls, exceed the sample size n, using the sparsity assumptions. The sparsity assumption means that only s unknown controls are needed to accurately approximate the nuisance part of the regression function, where s is smaller than n. Importantly, the estimators and these resulting confidence regions are 'honest' in the formal sense that their properties hold uniformly over s-sparse models. Moreover, these procedures do not rely on traditional 'consistent model selection' arguments for their validity; in fact, they are robust with respect to 'moderate' model selection mistakes in variable selection steps. Moreover, the estimators are semi-parametrically efficient in the sense of attaining the semi-parametric efficiency bounds for the class of models in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Ying Wei, 2013. "Honest confidence regions for a regression parameter in logistic regression with a large number of controls," CeMMAP working papers CWP67/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:67/13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107016064, October.
    2. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Kengo Kato, 2013. "Robust inference in high-dimensional approximately sparse quantile regression models," CeMMAP working papers CWP70/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Leeb, Hannes & Pötscher, Benedikt M., 2005. "Model Selection And Inference: Facts And Fiction," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 21-59, February.
    4. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107638105, October.
    5. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107016057, October.
    6. A. Belloni & D. Chen & V. Chernozhukov & C. Hansen, 2012. "Sparse Models and Methods for Optimal Instruments With an Application to Eminent Domain," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2369-2429, November.
    7. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107674165, October.
    8. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Kengo Kato, 2013. "Uniform post selection inference for LAD regression models," CeMMAP working papers CWP24/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Leeb, Hannes & Pötscher, Benedikt M., 2008. "Can One Estimate The Unconditional Distribution Of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 338-376, April.
    10. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107627314, October.
    11. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107016040, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2018. "Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-68, February.
    2. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Lie Wang, 2013. "Pivotal estimation via square-root lasso in nonparametric regression," CeMMAP working papers CWP62/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Victor Chernozhukov & Juan Carlos Escanciano & Hidehiko Ichimura & Whitney K. Newey & James M. Robins, 2022. "Locally Robust Semiparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1501-1535, July.
    4. Hansen, Christian & Liao, Yuan, 2019. "The Factor-Lasso And K-Step Bootstrap Approach For Inference In High-Dimensional Economic Applications," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 465-509, June.
    5. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2016. "Double/Debiased Machine Learning for Treatment and Causal Parameters," Papers 1608.00060, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    6. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivan Fernandez-Val & Christian Hansen, 2013. "Program evaluation with high-dimensional data," CeMMAP working papers CWP77/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Farrell, Max H., 2015. "Robust inference on average treatment effects with possibly more covariates than observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 1-23.
    8. Yichen Gao & Yu Zhang & Ximing Wu, 2015. "Penalized exponential series estimation of copula densities with an application to intergenerational dependence of body mass index," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 61-81, February.
    9. Sasaki, Yuya & Ura, Takuya, 2023. "Estimation and inference for policy relevant treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 394-450.
    10. Stijn Vansteelandt & Oliver Dukes, 2022. "Assumption‐lean inference for generalised linear model parameters," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(3), pages 657-685, July.
    11. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2014. "High-Dimensional Methods and Inference on Structural and Treatment Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    12. van de Geer, Sara, 2016. "Worst possible sub-directions in high-dimensional models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 248-260.
    13. Barbara Felderer & Jannis Kueck & Martin Spindler, 2021. "Big Data meets Causal Survey Research: Understanding Nonresponse in the Recruitment of a Mixed-mode Online Panel," Papers 2102.08994, arXiv.org.
    14. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2013. "Supplementary Appendix for "Inference on Treatment Effects After Selection Amongst High-Dimensional Controls"," Papers 1305.6099, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2013.

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