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The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations

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  • Delgado, Martha Elena
  • Herreño, Juan David
  • Hofstetter, Marc
  • Pedemonte, Mathieu

Abstract

We estimate the causal effects of a shift in the future expected exchange rate of a local currency against the US dollar on a representative sample of firms in a small open economy. We survey a nationally representative sample of firms and provide the one-year-ahead nominal exchange rate forecast published by the local central bank to a random sub-sample of firm managers. This information treatment is effective in shifting exchange rate expectations and perceptions. These effects are persistent and larger for non-exporting firms. Linking survey responses with administrative census data, we estimate a positive elasticity of current import expenditures to a future expected depreciation. Our estimates highlight the intertemporal margin of trade to anticipated changes in trade costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Delgado, Martha Elena & Herreño, Juan David & Hofstetter, Marc & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13761, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:13761
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0013188
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations; exchange rate; Firms; Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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